Free Baseball Picks - September 17, 2008

We got the win last night on our Cincinnati moneyline play to push our four-day run to 5-1 (83%) for +10.6 units. Today we feature two premium plays including a 4-unit selection.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City -151 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.7)

The Mariners have cashed in their chips for the season. When Seattle does go on the road their motivation is to get the game over with and get closer to closing the curtain on a dreadful 2008 season. The M's have now dropped eight straight on the road and will be hard-pressed to deliver a win in this contest. Gil Meche has pitched the Royals to 12 wins in his last 17 starts, while Ryan Rowland Smith has failed to deliver in five of his last seven. The Royals’ secret weapon is what they have done against left-handed pitching. They are a last place team, yet they have logged more wins against left-handed pitching than any other team. That's all you need to know here, the Royals get it done.

What appeared to be a road to the NL West title was a Dodger eight game losing streak, but the D-Backs just aren't good enough to capitalize. Arizona now finds themselves on the outside, looking at 4.5 games back with 12 to play. A second story building here is Brandon Webb. What appeared to be a slam dunk path to another Cy Young has changed dramatically and he is now chasing the Giants very own Tim Lincecum. This will certainly be added motivation for the Giants to keep Webb a notch behind. The fact is that the D-Backs have been out-scored 26-9 in Webb's last four starts. At the same time Jonathon Sanchez has left no wiggle room for a light-hitting team as he has surrendered no more than three runs in each of his last five starts. What would have looked like an automatic play on the D-Backs a month ago, has a whole different look of where the value is now, so I'll back the Giants as a big dog here.

Results: 1-1

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• Don't forget to read our 2008 season MLB baseball gambling preview here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-16-2008
The Reds have played well down the stretch as they have been 10-5 over their last 15 games. Bronson Arroyo has also been pitching at the top of his game, as the Reds are now 10-4 in his last 14 starts...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2008
Not only is Seattle a bad team but right now they are a cold bad team, losing four straight. Add a dreadful Carlos Silva to that mix, and the Mariners are not in a winning situation. Silva won three o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2008
Can you imagine the last place Pirates sweeping the Cards? Me Neither. Brad Thompson will look to ste things right today. He's 5-2 overall and 2-1 in starts with a 3.05 ERA. St. Louis is 41-28 vs....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2008
Cliff Lee looks to be the AL Cy Young winner hands down. He has had a magnificent season. The Indians however have not, and with Lee achieving the 20 win plateau and the Indians long out of it, this c...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2008
This one may appear a bit "chalky" laying some heavy wood, but not chalky enough for the overall expectation. Francisco Liriano was by far the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.93 ERA before...