Baseball Gambling Pick - September 16, 2009

We had a slight loss on the MLB mound yesterday going 1-2.  We look to bounce back today and add to our three month totals of 214-164 for +106.1 units with seven premium MLB plays including a 4 unit selection.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	23-15 last 38 picks	61%	+$1900
MLB	214-164 last 378 picks	57%	+$10610
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	112-83 last 195 picks	57%	+$5510
TOTAL			+$30480

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Florida at St. Louis (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 7.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

There is always an anticipation of a pitcher's duel whenever two high caliber starters take the mound. Such is the expctation when Josh Johnson of the Marlins squares off vs Joel Piniero of the Cardinals. The problem is each has performed worse over their last three starts than they have over the course of the season, so we aren't getting either in the zone here so to speak. Then add in a Marlins team that has been very offensive and has played 27-13-1 to the over in their last 41 games. They are also 10-3-1 to the over with Johnson on the mound after they scored two or less the day before. Cards 4-0 to the over after two runs or less and 5-1 over in their last six vs a righthander where they score much more. The last five meetings have seen just one go under the total between these two clubs, and I'll ride the over here.

The Rays have basically packed it in. Even last year when they were the surprise of baseball and rode the magic all the way to the world series, there was no magic on the road as they finished below .500 This season has been disappointing and the road woes have marked the year as the Rays own a 30-46 mark while taking to the highway. Dropping five of six at home to the Red Sox, then the Tigers took all the spirit and hope from this team and the losing has now reached 12 of 13. The fact is the Rays aren't just having some rough luck, they are getting beaten up as the combined score during the 13 game skid is 75-36 against them or 5.8-2.7 better than three runs a game. Andy Sonnanstine, who led the Rays to over 20 wins a year ago in his starts, has pitched to a startling 7.15 ERA. All O's here and Baltimore gets the call.

The tank is empty for the Rays as they dropped out of the race and are just mailing it in. The Rays have lost 12 of their last 13 and are getting nothing from the offense or the pitching staff. They have been outscored by over three runs a game over the last 13 and, with Andy Sonnanstine on the hill here with his king size 7.15 ERA, puts a valued interest here on the Orioles runline and gets the call in this one.

The Cubs are going to fall short of what was expected to be another playoff appearance, but it isn't the home resume that will keep them out of the playoffs, it is a 31-40 road mark that made the difference. The Cubs offense takes a hit on the road while the home record of 44-28 is powered by a five run per game home average. The Brewers masked the loss of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia from the top of their rotation for awhile, but it caught up to them. After leading the NL Central for nearly the first third of the season, it has been a spiral down ever since. Braden Looper has pitched close to a five ERA on the season and the Brewers are just 4-13 vs a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher in their last 17 in this spot. Cubs have turned a magnificent 63-25 mark at home vs teams with a losing record. Looper yielding lots of runs vs teams with a winning record, 10 of his last 13 against them have gone over the total, and these teams have slugged out a 17-8-2 mark to the over in their last 27. I will go with the Cubs and OVER here.

The Brewers have really been a sinking ship since running out on top of the NL Central early on. A 26-15 start raised some eye-brows, but the Crew has been a less than mediocre 43-60 since. So even though the overall record looks somewhat respectable at six games under .500, the last 100 or so has shown 17 under. Looper has not been a productive pitcher and Cubs have made mince-meat out of losing teams at home to the tune of a 63-25 mark in their last 88. Good enough to grab the runline in this one.

The matchup has the makings of a low scoring game here with two top pitchers squaring off, but the fact is Matt Cain has produced a higher ERA at home than on the road for the season. The combined ERA of these two pitchers vs the respective clubs they will face here has been nine this season. DeLaRosa 5.40 vs the Giants, and Cain 3.60 vs the Rockies certainly leaves wiggle room on the over. Factor in the Rockies playing 7-2 to the over vs a winning team in their last nine and a perfect 5-0 after a loss. Giants respectively at 6-0 to the over after a loss and, with Cain on the hill, 5-1 when he gets the ball after a Giant loss to the over. Might look like a pitcher's duel, but lots of indications to the contrary.  I'll go with the OVER here.

Results: 3-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our 2009 baseball picks results here.
• Check out blog mlb picks here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB handicapping philosophy here.
• Take a look at our MLB previous picks here.
• View our updated MLB Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Check out our updated mlb sportsbook.
• View our MLB Baseball lines here.
• Check out our updated mlb baseball pick.
• Don't forget to read our MLB ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2009
Cliff Lee has developed a reputation that puts the oddsmakers in a bad place. He has pitched very well for the past two years, but  like any other pitcher, he hits the wall and loses his way. Rig...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2009
It is down to playing out the string for these two teams. The Padres were not expected to do well in the NL West, but have done a great job all season at home where they stand a more-than-competitive ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2009
The Dodgers own a 41-29 road record, scoring 5.2 runs per game (way more than they average at home). The Giants are good at home, but their offense is weak. Chad Billingsley has been better than Brad ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2009
The Angels have been a lethal team against left-hand pitching. They have collected the win in 38 of their last 56 played against them and are on a nice 9-2 run against southpaws in their last 11 at ho...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2009
The Tigers are doing all they can to make a race out of the AL Central. They just went to Kansas City to face the lowly Royals, and came out of the three-game series winless. They now come home with N...