Baseball Betting Picks - September 16, 2007

1-3 yesterday. Four more MLB plays today.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Houston (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

The Pirates let a 5-0 lead slip away last night, but still remain the better team here with a pitching advantage as well. Paul Maholm has simply been a different pitcher since he carried a 5.82 ERA through his first nine starts when the Pirates won just two of them. He has since worked 122 innings allowing less hits than innings pitched, and has an ERA of 3.69 - more than two runs better. He has done his best work recently, as the Pirates have now won his last four starts. The Astros’ win raised their record to just 3-10 over the last 13. Brandon Backe has made two starts following Tommy John surgery, not pitching deep in games, carrying nearly a 6.00 ERA. It is doubtful they stretch him out here, and the Pirates should have no problems solving his serves. We like the Pirates to take the finale and the series.

The Tigers have now won four-straight games, and are 9-2 over their last 11. The pitching staff has now allowed only seven runs in the past four games. Jair Jurrgens has revitalized a staff that was struggling most of the second half, and his 3.15 ERA has led to three-straight Tigers’ victories when he takes the mound. The Twins have quit going just 5-13 over their last 18 games as they have given up over five runs a game during this stretch, and in their last three the offense has produced just eight runs. The Tigers have now made it six straight over the Twins, as the Twins’ offense has produced just 10 runs in those six games, or 1.67 per game. Scott Baker has been getting hit hard since shutting out KC. His last two starts have produced 21 hits in just 10.2 innings. Baker has been hit hard by teams seeing him for the second time on the season. The second time around Milwaukee touched him up for six runs, the White Sox seven and the Angels six. We like the hot Tigers to make it seven straight against the Twins to sweep the series.

The Cubs have been a big money loser all season for bettors (-13.2 units). But do you know where all of those losses (and more) have come from? Left-handed opposing pitchers. While 63-50 for +1.8 units against RHP, Chicago is 14-22 for -15 units against the lefties. Today they face Mark Mulder who has been awful in two appearances. But, Chicago just can't get over on southpaws batting .249 and scoring just 3.6 runs per game (RPG) against them. Mulder has always done well against poor power-hitting clubs like the Cubs. He's 30-7 vs. teams that average less than one home run per game. This is a long road trip for the Cubs which have not treated them well so far. They are just 3-10 following 5+ consecutive road games this season. We like the Cards at home here.

This is a pretty ugly pitching matchup. Scott Olsen, while decent at home has been a bad road pitcher who is off a few poor showings. Franklin Morales got shelled in his two home appearances to the tune of an 11.57 ERA and he's lasted an average of just 4.5 innings per start. Colorado can hit at home. But, Florida can belt LHP. The Marlins average 5.4-rpg against LHP and right now they are pounding the ball (6.4 per game over their last seven). There's certainly no reason to think Colorado is the only team that will score a lot today. Florida is actually 21-18 this season as an underdog of +125 to +175. That includes an amazing 14-7 mark as a road underdog of +125 to +150! Take the hot Marlins (won four straight) over the cold Rockies (lost three in a row) at nice value here.

Results: 1-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our 2007 MLB handicapping preview here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb sportsbook reviews here.
• View our MLB ATS standings here.
• Check out our updated MLB lines and odds.
• Hop over to our free mlb predictions here.
• Read our MLB Baseball Game Analysis here.
• Read our mlb baseball betting approach here.
• View 2007 baseball prior pick results here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball picks blog here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-15-2007
The odds makers continue to under value the D-Backs. They lead all of baseball at +19.44 units against the moneyline, yet they continue to get the short side of the odds, even as they have won seven o...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2007
The Nationals have certainly held their own this season, and they will have a lot working for them as they open a series against the Braves. The Nationals have played well at home having won five stra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2007
The Oakland A's completed the first half of the season with a 42-39 record. They have since gone 29-37, and just 6-12 over their last 18. The surprise has been the total collapse of the pitching s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2007
Tom Gorzelanny has had a good year for a bad team. It has translated into a 14-7 record. The bad news is when he is left out of the decision the Pirates are 0-7! So overall the Pirates are just 14-14 ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2007
The Tigers are in a battle for their post-season lives, as they have faded over the last half of the season. They stood at 58-37, and appeared poised to defend their AL title, but have been just 30-39...