darrell,

Got them both yesterday - 5 today...

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Game: Baltimore at Detroit (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Detroit -168 (risk 200 to win 119)

Detroit separated a bit from Minnesota who lost to Cleveland last night. That loss allowed the Tigers to move two games up in the AL Central. But Detroit knows they need to keep winning to ensure a division win. Luckily they have Nate Robertson on the mound. His record has been unimpressive but he's got a 3.84 ERA that's down to 1.71 over his last three starts. A bit of run support and this guy could have eighteen wins. Will he get that this afternoon? I think he'll get enough against a Baltimore team that is 25-45 on the road and 1-6 in their last seven games. They struggle against lefties like Robertson so I don't expect much Orioles offense here. The O's are 3-17 this season on the road vs. a pitcher with a 1.300 WHIP or better (Robertson's is 1.290). Detroit's in off a 17-2 win and they are 12-1 this season off a game in which they scored in double digits. Tirgers at home.

Again, we get a horrible road team here in Tampa. We don't have Roy Halladay hurling for Toronto tonight but we still get Ted Lilly who is 8-4 at home. Over his last three starts, he's looked very good posting a 2.79 ERA. Toronto's offense has been lacking lately but I'm fading Tampa again on the road at least one more time. 2-26 since the All-Star break on the road is too much to ignore.

Chicago has found someting of late, winning three of five. This game is all about the starters. Rich Hill is 3-2 at home with a 3.00 ERA. In his last three starts he's given up 3 earned runs and just 15 hits in 21 innings. His counterpart, Chris Michalak is 0-2 with a 7.54 ERA. Cincinnati bats are cold, scoring 4.0 runs per game over their last seven. The Reds are 12-21 after allowing 2 runs or less this season. Cubs here.

Chris Carpenter is putting together another Cy Young season. He's 14-6 on the season with a 2.84 ERA. At home? 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA! He's off his third shutout of the season. He faces Matt Morris who is 0-7 during September play the past two seasons. In his last meeting against the Cardinals, he gave up 6 runs in 6 innings in a 5-8 loss. The Cards have the better bullpen and more potent offense as well. Love Carpenter in this spot.

I like the Yanks in the second game today with Randy Johnson on the mound. Sure Boston would like to win here but they just don't have it this season and with three wins, the Yanks clich the AL East. After a shaky start, Johnson has picked up. He's now 17-10 on the season and I love how he's pitched of late, posting a 3-0 record and 3.86 ERA in his last three starts. He's won 6 of his last 7 decisions and will bring his A game agains the Sox. The Yankees continue to pound the ball, posting six straight wins, scoring 7+ runs in five of those games! Yankees here.