Mlb Game Predictions - September 15, 2007

2-2 for a slight win yesterday as the Nats blew a lead in extra frames to spoil a big win. Today we like four plays...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Arizona at Los Angeles Dodgers (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arizona +144 (risk 4 to win 5.8)

The odds makers continue to under value the D-Backs. They lead all of baseball at +19.44 units against the moneyline, yet they continue to get the short side of the odds, even as they have won seven of nine. Derek Lowe has really struggled, as he has pitched to a 5.84 ERA in his last nine starts, and the Dodgers even worked him out of the pen for an inning to get him right, but his second half has been poor. Livan Hernandez has been average all season, but has pitched better lately. Hernandez has a 3.60 ERA covering his last four starts. The D-Backs have been under valued all season, and a game that we consider a toss up, the value obviously lies with the generous dog, so we will ride the D-Backs.

The Pirates have won 10 of 13 in this matchup this season including 6 of 7 here in Houston! Houston is as cold as it gets having lost eight of nine. Meanwhile Pittsburgh has won four of five. Wandy Rodriguez has been all over the board for Houston. He's 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA at home but he's just 8-13 overall on the year and he's been slipping of late (5.28 ERA his last three). The Pirates are averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last seven while Houston has averaged 2.4. The Astros are 42-62 for -22 units on the season vs. RHP. Pittsburgh is just a half game below .500 vs. LHP and they've made bettors money on the season vs. southpaws and on the road overall. Houston is 24-38 on the season vs. losing teams. Pittsburgh is 63-84 overall but they are 36-36 vs. division foes. We'll take the Pirates as a dog here.

The D-Rays put together a 13-4 run, which if nothing else will prevent them from losing 100 games this season. They have now reverted back to form as they have dropped four straight. It is the bullpen that’s the culprit, as it has been all season, blowing leads in three of the four losses. Scott Kazmir has pitched well, but in his last five starts he has pitched to a 4.68 ERA. The biggest problem for the D-Rays is their pen. The pen has worked 89 innings in Kazmir starts, and has a 5.36 ERA trying to finish his games. The Mariners played themselves right out of the wildcard chase with a 1-13 run. They have righted the ship, but perhaps too late. They have now won three straight and have been lethal against LHP. The Mariners are a major league best 24-11 against southpaws recording +15.06 units for their backers, and are also a lethal +11.69 units at home. Horacio Ramirez has not pitched well, but the Mariners always find a way against LHP, and at home and as a dog the value is hard to resist.

After struggling for most of the second half The Tigers have again become the team they were in the first half. They have now gone 8-2 in their last 10, but the problem is that the Yankees have also been 8-2, and they have held serve, but games are dwindling. They will face Johan Santana who has had a good year, but as a team the Twins are down this year, and their overall record is a career-worst 17-13 in his starts. Santana has allowed a pedestrian 29 hits in his last 26 innings, along with six HRs. He has been a victim to the long ball all season as he has already served-up a career high 30 dingers! That may be the opening for the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, as their two sluggers have had no problem solving his serves. Ordonez is 18-43 in his career, good for a .419 average, along with five HRs. Sheffield stands at .320 with eight hits in 25 ABs. In the past, Santana has been almost unbeatable at home, but stands at just 6-7 this season. Santana has been over valued all season as he ranks No. 270 out of 300 pitchers on the moneyline chart. The Twins are -5.5 units overall in his starts. Yorman Bozardo gets the start for the Tigers. He has worked in relief pitching to a 3.00 ERA, and had a good year at AAA Toledo finishing at 10-6 with a 3.75 ERA. He is around the plate walking less than three per nine innings, and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. The Twins are just 3-7 in their last 10, and appear to be playing out the string, so we will ride the hot Tigers in this one.

Results: 1-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our 2007 MLB gambling preview.
• Don't forget to visit our mlb sportsbooks.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB ATS records.
• Take a look at our Baseball lines and odds here.
• Here we show our mlb free picks.
• Take a look at our Baseball Game Preview here.
• Hop over to our MLB baseball handicapping philosophy here.
• View 2007 MLB baseball prior pick results here.
• Don't forget to read our blog baseball here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-14-2007
The Nationals have certainly held their own this season, and they will have a lot working for them as they open a series against the Braves. The Nationals have played well at home having won five stra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2007
The Oakland A's completed the first half of the season with a 42-39 record. They have since gone 29-37, and just 6-12 over their last 18. The surprise has been the total collapse of the pitching s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2007
Tom Gorzelanny has had a good year for a bad team. It has translated into a 14-7 record. The bad news is when he is left out of the decision the Pirates are 0-7! So overall the Pirates are just 14-14 ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2007
The Tigers are in a battle for their post-season lives, as they have faded over the last half of the season. They stood at 58-37, and appeared poised to defend their AL title, but have been just 30-39...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-10-2007
Youkilis 5-23 (.217), Varitek 4-18 (.222), Ramirez 6-39 (.154), Ortiz 5-34 (.147), Lugo 2-11 (.182), Drew 0-3 (.000), Crisp 2-10 (.200) - total 22-138 (.159). That is the bulk of the Red Sox lineup, a...