Mlb Baseball Pick Online - September 14, 2007

0-1 yesterday. Today we kick off the weekend with four more plays - all dogs...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Atlanta at Washington (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Washington +129 (risk 4 to win 5.2)

The Nationals have certainly held their own this season, and they will have a lot working for them as they open a series against the Braves. The Nationals have played well at home having won five straight, and are now 19-8 in their last 27 at home. They are also the second-best team in all of MLB against LHP and the moneyline as they have treated their backers to +10.67 units on the season. The fact is that the Nationals have not lost at home to a LHP with an ERA of over four since June 18! The Braves have played themselves right out of the divisional and wildcard race as they have gone 7-14 over their last 21, and own a losing record over the last three years playing in Washington. The Braves have the dubious distinction of having lost more games (32) to LHP than any team in baseball. The Braves are just 3-5 in James' last eight starts, and he has pitched to a 6.68 ERA in his last six. Matt Chico has allowed just one run in his last two starts, pitching to a 0.75 ERA. We like the Nats to take the opener.

After eight consecutive brilliant outings of allowing just two runs or less, Roy Oswalt has struggled in his last two. Oswalt has yielded 19 hits in just 12.2 innings along with nine runs. Houston has lost 9 of 11, and most recently they have gone just 1-7, and in those eight games have scored just 19 runs topping three just once. Oswalt could pitch a great game, and the win could still be in doubt. The Pirates have won three of four and 6 of 10, and in those ten games scored double digits twice and also had two shutouts, so they have been getting it from both sides. Ian Snell has had success against this Astros’ lineup. He has worked just 12 innings this season against them, allowing two and three runs respectively and has struck out 19! Looks like a Houston team playing out the string with a good pitcher that has hit a rough spot with a lineup that can't score. We will ride the Pirates in this one.

The White Sox needed that win yesterday. It stopped a three-game skid and moved them to .500 over their last ten games. They now get a home stand against the Angels - a team that has really been a Jekyll and Hyde all season. At home, the Angels are 49-25 and have produced +8.8 units for bettors. On the road they are barely above .500 and have lost cash for backers. Their offensive production on the road falls off tremendously as compared to home (over a full run and 40 points of batting average). The White Sox have been hitting well of late - it's been poor defense that has hurt them. The Angels are a good matchup for them as they just don't score a lot on the road. The Angels also don't fare well vs. low-scoring teams. They are just 25-30 on the year against AL teams that bat .260 or worse. And, you gotta’ love the pitching matchup here. Jose Contreras is all of a sudden become very hot. Over his last three starts he's got a 3.86 ERA. Bartolo Colon is the opposite. He's been bad all year (7.54 road ERA) and he's suddenly gotten much worse, posting a 15.75 ERA over his last three starts. Take the home dog here with the good matchup.

The D-Backs come to LA riding a 7-1 streak, and have played very well for a longer stretch. The D-Backs have gone 33-16 in their last 49 games. They have plated 52 runs in their last eight, out-scoring their opponents by nearly 2.5 runs per game (RPG). Arizona is on a nice run with Davis on the mound as they are now 11-1 in his last 12 starts. He has absolutely stymied the Dodgers, working 30 innings over his career against them, allowing zero runs and just 16 hits! Brad Penny has had a great season, but the greatest part of it was early, as he pitched the Dodgers to a 14-2 record in his first 16 starts, while his ERA was 2.04. The Dodgers are just 8-6 in his last 14 starts, and his ERA has nearly doubled to 3.75. The Dodgers are 19-20 since August 2, and have not played like the D-Backs. We will ride the hot D-Backs in this one with a pitcher in Davis that has allowed nothing from this Dodgers’ team in 30 innings.

Results: 2-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-13-2007
The Oakland A's completed the first half of the season with a 42-39 record. They have since gone 29-37, and just 6-12 over their last 18. The surprise has been the total collapse of the pitching s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-12-2007
Tom Gorzelanny has had a good year for a bad team. It has translated into a 14-7 record. The bad news is when he is left out of the decision the Pirates are 0-7! So overall the Pirates are just 14-14 ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2007
The Tigers are in a battle for their post-season lives, as they have faded over the last half of the season. They stood at 58-37, and appeared poised to defend their AL title, but have been just 30-39...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-10-2007
Youkilis 5-23 (.217), Varitek 4-18 (.222), Ramirez 6-39 (.154), Ortiz 5-34 (.147), Lugo 2-11 (.182), Drew 0-3 (.000), Crisp 2-10 (.200) - total 22-138 (.159). That is the bulk of the Red Sox lineup, a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2007
Zack Greinke gets the pleasure of trying to slow down A-Rod and the Yankees. He just may be able to do it. He has a 3.87 ERA on the year and has gone 19 straight innings without allowing a run. C...