Baseball Pick - September 12, 2009

We nailed our lone MLB play yesterday - a +140 dog winner on Toronto. Today, we feature six premium picks, including a 5-unit play, as we are rolling along at 58% over the last three months at 211-154 for +128 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	107-81 last 188 picks	57%	+$4300
CFB	8-6 last 14 picks	57%	+$90
MLB	211-154 last 365 picks	58%	+$12820
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$36990

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs +170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 5.1)

The Angels have been a lethal team against left-hand pitching. They have collected the win in 38 of their last 56 played against them and are on a nice 9-2 run against southpaws in their last 11 at home.  They have also grabbed their last five as a home favorite, and stand at 40-18 in their last 58 played against a team with a losing record on the season. The White Sox find themselves in one of their worst possible spots. They have more than struggled against the elite home teams, they have been mercifully bad. The White Sox are now an eye-popping 12-45 in their last 57 played against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. No place for the Sox here, so I'll grab the Angels in this one, on the runline.

The Marlins have not been taking care of business at home as they are just 3-6 in their last nine. Last night they looked to be a breeze behind Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, but ended up dropping a 5-3 decision to the Nats. The Nats have had a way of sneaking up on teams, just when you least expect it as they took two from the Yankees at the Stadium, and closed the Phillies series on the road with a win. It leaves this team winning two straight. When they face an opponent that allowed 5+ runs in their last game, the Nats have been a very good 11-5. Anibel Sanchez has not been one to answer that call, as the Marlins are now 0-7 when he takes the mound after allowing five in the previous game. It looks ugly, but the signs and value are there, and I'll go with the Nats in this one.

The Washington Nationals are a poor team, but every once in awhile they rev it up and get hot and surprise some teams. Just ask the Yanks who dropped a pair to them at home. The Nats closed with a big win in Philly, came to Florida and took down a relatively hot Marlins team and beat their best pitcher in the process. That leaves Florida in an ugly spot as Anibel Sanchez takes to the hill, and after allowing five runs in their last game and when Sanchez follows, it has led to an 0-7 mark for the Marlins. At the same token, the Nats are 11-5 after playing a team allowing five or more. Good spot for the Nats here, and I'll grab them on the runline.

The Tigers are lucky to be in the AL Central where the competition this season is minimal, but they still seem to be trying to keep the race alive. The Tigers have dropped four straight games now, and send Edwin Jackson to the mound vs. the Jays here. Jackson went through 16 starts without allowing more than three runs, but he seems to be hitting the wall. While allowing four runs in a game just twice on the season, he has suddenly allowed four in three of his last six starts, and his ERA during his last six starts has grown to 5.09. That opens the door to a Blue Jays team that won the opener here and has reigned supreme over the weak AL Central as they are now 39-18 against them in their last 57 played. I like a long and live dog here, so I'll back Toronto.

No one thought the Texas Rangers would be around a playoff race in mid-September, but here they are putting pressure on the Red Sox, just two games behind them in the AL wildcard race. The Rangers aren't gonna make it easy as they have won three straight and seven of nine. Kevin Millwood gets the ball here for the Rangers, and he has allowed two runs or less in 16 of his 28 starts on the season. He has been real sharp at home with a 7-2 mark backed by a 2.83 ERA. The Rangers are also 55-23 with a total set at 9-10.5, and with Millwood opening a series stand at 9-2. Mariners are 22-57 in their last 79 with a total set at 9-10.5, and just 19-43 in their last 62 as a road dog. I'll go with the Rangers in this one.

The Texas Rangers are a scoring team with their best home pitcher on the hill in Kevin Millwood. Millwood owns a 7-2 mark at home with a 2.83 ERA. The Rangers are 55-23 with a total from 9-10.5 while the Mariners are 22-57, and that becomes very telling here. The Mariners have failed badly as a road dog, going 19-42 in their last 61. The Mariners are also 17-43 in their last 60 played in Texas. I'm going with the Rangers on the runline as well in this one.

Results: 1-5

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our 2009 MLB picks here.
• Take a look at our mlb picks blog here.
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• Take a look at our baseball sports book reviews here.
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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-11-2009
The Tigers are doing all they can to make a race out of the AL Central. They just went to Kansas City to face the lowly Royals, and came out of the three-game series winless. They now come home with N...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-10-2009
Anytime you get a team with a poor road pedigree and playing against a team that has been seven games over .500 at home, and they are favored, you have to look for reasons to play against them. There ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2009
Looking back three weeks ago, the Angels offense was clicking. It may surprise most that the Angel offense had produced more runs than that of the high powered Yankees. That has changed dramatically. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2009
The Toronto Blue Jays held their own early in the AL East, and actually had the division lead at one point as they opened the season 27-15. What has happened since hasn't been pretty. The Jays hav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2009
The Blue Jays' bats woke up yesterday as they walked past the Yankees 14-8 on their way to a four-game split. During that four-game stretch, they tallied 29 runs, or over seven per game....