darrell,

Split 'em last night. Three tonight.

Wunderdog Picks Results Check out my 12-month performance here.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck today...

Game: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 stars on New York Yankees -250 (risk 400 to win 160)

The Yankees are rolling again. They've won their last three and eight of eleven, putting up 8+ runs six times during that span including back-to-back 9 run performances against Baltimore the past two nights. With that kind of offense, and Mike Mussina on the mound, they are a heavy favorite here. But for very good reason. Tampa Bay is the league's absolute worst road team right now at 19-50. They start Tim Corcoran who gave up 5 runs in 3.3 innings to the Yankees back in July. Musina is 15-5 with a 3.36 ERA vs. Tampa Bay. He's 7-2 with a 3.58 ERA at home this season. He's off a loss to lowly Kansas City and you know he won't have another poor performance against a league doormat here - not at home. The Yankees are 22-5 after a high scoring game (15+ runs) this season. Back to Tampa's road record: It's 2-22 in the second half of the season. Yankees here.

Pittsburgh is now 6-2 vs. the Brewers here at home this season where they apparently have their number. Zach Duke pitched very well last night to give the Pirates a one-run victory over Milwaukee. Milwaukee goes with Chris Capuano who has a nice overall ERA at 3.49. But, he's off two straight losses and he's just 2-5 with a 6.31 ERA vs. the Pirates in nine starts. Since the All-Star break, his team is 3-10 with him starting. Shawn Chacon has a 4-2 home record this season. Milwaukee as big road chalk?!? The Brewers are 11-22 as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the past decade. This season they are 7-17 following a one-run loss. Gotta fade the Brewers when laying this much wood on the road to a winning home team.

The Marlins were expected to be awful this season but they are threatening a playoff run right now. They have won three in a row, eight of eleven and 17 of their last 22 while the Mets have lost three of four. The Marlins face Oliver Perez who has a 6.58 ERA and 3-11 record. On the road he's 0-6 with a 10.58 ERA. Why is this guy still pitching? Countering for Florida is Josh Johnson (11-5 with 3.14 ERA). Johnson is 2-0 against the Mets, having given up 0 runs in 12 innings. We get a hot home team vs. a cold one with a huge pitching mismatch for just -120. Take the Marlins.