Baseball Predictions - September 11, 2008
Yesterday we nailed a huge dog win on Oakland (+193). Tonight we feature our 5-unit MLB Game of the Month. We are up +14.5 units over the last three weeks and go with three plays today.
WNBA 5-unit picks are on a 6-0 run and we go with another 5-unit play from the ladies' hardwood tonight. Over the last week our WNBA picks are on a 7-2 run hitting 75% for +8.2 units.
| WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| CFB |
15-7 last 22 picks |
68% | +$2050 |
| MLB |
33-28 last 61 picks |
54% | +$1450 |
| NFL |
20-16 last 36 picks |
56% | +$190 |
| WNBA |
7-2 last 9 picks |
78% | +$1070 |
| TOTAL | | | +$4760 |
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -299 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.3)
This one may appear a bit "chalky" laying some heavy wood, but not chalky enough for the overall expectation. Francisco Liriano was by far the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.93 ERA before he was injured, and since he has been totally healthy again, he is again the best pitcher in baseball. When you put him on the mound at home over that time period he is 9-1 with a 1.22 ERA, and the Twins have outscored the opponents 56-19! The problem for the oddsmakers, how can you get action on a team if you put this one where it belongs at -550? Over 10 home starts the expected outcome is the Royals score 1 run here, so unless the Twins get shutout by a pitcher with a 6.60 ERA I look to be in good shape here. Since the Royal staff hasn't recorded a shutout since May 14th, this looks like a lot of value to me, and I'll back the Twins here.
Game: Chicago at St Louis (8:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on St Louis +126 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.5)
While the Cubs have won games at home at a rate of better than two-to-one, they have been a breakeven proposition on the road putting one in the win column. When you factor in playing on the road against a team that has a winning record, they become a sub -.500 team. Rich Harden is on the hill and could be suspect, as he missed his last start with discomfort in his shoulder. He will have to be watched closely today and may not go deep in this game. Todd Wellemeyer has been the Cards most reliable starter as he is 12-6 with a 3.74 ERA. He has been very sharp lately, as he has allowed more than three runs just one time over his last nine games. Looks like a live dog to me, so I'll back the Cards as a home pup.
Game: Texas at Oakland (10:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 5 units on Oakland -119 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4.2)
The Texas Rangers were above .500 a lot later in the season than many would ever believe, but a recent 11-21 slide has put an end to that. The Rangers’ offense was sizzling for better than a month at six runs plus a game, but has declined substantially over the past month, while the pitching remains the worst in baseball with an ERA of 5.32. The bullpen ranks 31st among the 32 MLB teams as well. Oakland went through a period of no offense and with it few wins, as the A's went through a month's worth of games averaging 2.6 runs a game. Things have changed. The A's have discovered offense and have produced 6.3 runs a game in their last six and have now won four of five. They send Dallas Braden to the mound tonight with his 3.72 ERA. More important than his better-than-average ERA is the fact he is a left-handed pitcher. The Rangers have been seven games over .500 against right-handed pitchers, but getting destroyed by lefties to the tune of a 14-28 mark on the season - the worst in baseball. So when you take a team that is slumping winning just one of three over the last month, has the worst pitching staff, and a pitcher on the mound that is the worst of the worst with a 6.59 ERA, backed by the second-worst bullpen, facing a lefthander where they have managed just one win in every three tries against, facing a pitcher with above-average stuff, finally heating up offensively, you end up with my MLB Game Of The Month on the A's.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-10-2008
The Oakland offense averaged 2.5 runs a game for nearly a month and a half, has shown some life lately as they have an average of over six runs a game in their last six, and they have now won three ou...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2008
John Lannan has pitched admirably for a poor team all year, posting an ERA in the 3's on the season. He has allowed three runs or less in 20 of 27 starts, and should be able to keep the Nats in th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2008
The AL East race gets the top two teams squaring off at Fenway tonight when the Tampa Bay Rays invade Boston. The Sox have cut the Rays margin to 1.5 games, and tonight becomes a pivotal game. Jon Les...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2008
Chris Young, a losing pitcher with an ERA pushing 5.00 goes today for the Padres. Young hasn't won since May 16 and has lasted more than six innings just twice in his last 14 starts. The Pads have...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2008
Brandon Webb has been searching for that 20th win, and is finding it quite elusive. The D-Backs looked like they were in control as the Dodgers went into the tank dropping eight straight. Now the pres...
