Baseball Betting Free Pick - September 11, 2007

3-1 yesterday, missed the sweep as the Tigers hung a 4 spot in the bottom of the ninth. We've gone 62% since September 2, for +44.8 units! Four plays tonight.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Texas at Detroit (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Texas +153 (risk 4 to win 6.1)

The Tigers are in a battle for their post-season lives, as they have faded over the last half of the season. They stood at 58-37, and appeared poised to defend their AL title, but have been just 30-39 since. Texas on the other hand suddenly believes they can finish at .500, which would be remarkable after a 23-42 start! The Rangers have been 45-32 in their last 77, and come to Detroit as the hottest team in baseball winning 12 of their last 14. The Rangers have scored 5+ runs in 11 of those games, and are averaging seven a game. Vicented Padilla did not get off to a good start, as the Rangers stood 2-11 in his first 13 starts, but have rebounded nicely, going 5-2 in his last seven, two of which Padilla gave up no runs. Chad Durbin lost his spot in the rotation, when the Tigers were playing well, and in the four starts he has made since, they are just 1-3, while his ERA has been over five. Gotta like the hot Rangers in this one. THIS IS A DOUBLEHEADER GAME 1 PLAY.

We validated our thoughts in game one, regarding the direction of these two teams, so it comes down to a new pitching matchup. Brandon McCarthy is an ideal pitcher to be on the mound for a team that is hot offensively. He often pitches the same almost every time out. McCarthy has now gone 14 starts without giving up more than four earned runs, which he did twice. He doesn't implode, and keeps his team in the game and with a hot offense that should be good enough. Jair Jurgens has pitched well for the Tigers, but the Tigers have had bullpen issues, and the one thing Jurgens has shown is that he does serve up the long ball, and facing a hot lineup with a suspect pen will be his demise. We look for the Rangers to sweep away the Tiger’s chances to defend their title. THIS IS A GAME 2 SELECTION.

The Padres get in trouble when their offense fails them. They have produced three runs or less in 65 games this season, and have scored three or less now in three of their last five, and have consequently won just once. Jake Peavy has had an outstanding season, but will be coming off his worst outing to dat, as he allowed eight earned runs. Peavy gave up just 4 HRs covering his first 23 starts, but has suddenly yielded five in his last six starts, and perhaps he is not in the same zone he had been, for most of the season. The Padres have not been a good home team as they are just 19-19 in their last 38 home games. The Dodgers counter with Esteban Loiaza, who has not allowed more than three runs in his three starts. He has pitched seven innings or more in all of them. This game appears to be a toss up, so we will take the generous moneyline value on the Dodgers to walk away with the opener.

Arizona has now won six straight, and scoring seven runs a game in the process. Yet they are listed once again as an underdog against a mediocre team at best. The D-Backs are 51-30 off a win good for +20.52 units for their backers. The D-Backs have also gone 7-3 in their last 10, and when they have won seven or more over their last 10 games they have been 25-17 on the season rewarding their backers with +10.01 units of profit. Kevin Correia will make his fifth start since being placed in the rotation, and he has pitched well, but as we saw last night the SF pen coughed it up. After their best run of the season the Giants, 12-3, have now dipped back to 3-6 over their last nine. The problem is the same they have faced all year long - no offensive punch. The Giant’s offense has only been able to muster 30 runs in those nine games, or 3.3 runs per game. Edgar Gonzalez comes out of the pen to start for the D-Backs. His last two outings have resulted in 5.2 innings allowing just three hits and no runs. We like the D-Backs to make it back-to-back over the Giants and seven straight overall.

Results: 1-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-10-2007
Youkilis 5-23 (.217), Varitek 4-18 (.222), Ramirez 6-39 (.154), Ortiz 5-34 (.147), Lugo 2-11 (.182), Drew 0-3 (.000), Crisp 2-10 (.200) - total 22-138 (.159). That is the bulk of the Red Sox lineup, a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2007
Zack Greinke gets the pleasure of trying to slow down A-Rod and the Yankees. He just may be able to do it. He has a 3.87 ERA on the year and has gone 19 straight innings without allowing a run. C...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2007
LA lost yesterday in the bottom of the ninth, but it was only their first loss to the Giants in San Francisco this season (they are 6-1). We like Los Angeles to bounce back with a win this afternoon. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2007
The road and RHP is not the type of game where the Blue Jays produce their best results. The Jays are the fourth-worst road team to the moneyline in all of baseball, and near the bottom against RHP as...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2007
Weak offense and bad pitching = favorite? The St. Louis offense is too cold right now to be favored here. They have totaled just 18 hits in their last three games and they've notched 7 or fewer ru...