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Free Baseball Pick - September 10, 2009Today we are back on the bump with four premium MLB picks including a pair of plays on the early game. Despite our recent skid, we are hitting at 58% (208-152) for +124.8 units over the last three months. Get a 40% Deposit Bonus at Diamond Sports or Bookmaker or a 50% bonus at BetUS when you open an account through us. Reply to this email for details.
 Today's MLB Baseball Picks: Anytime you get a team with a poor road pedigree and playing against a team that has been seven games over .500 at home, and they are favored, you have to look for reasons to play against them. There is one huge answer and reason to opt for Toronto in a live home dog spot here. The Twins have been a poor road team for years, but they are at their worst when they have to lace them up against a lefthander on the road. The Twins have been a dreadful 14-39 in their last 53 road games vs. a lefthander, that is a winning percentage of 26.4%, so the billing as the chalk in this one isn't justifiable.They are also just 16-35 against the AL East, and that includes 1-5 in Baker's last six starts against them. Then when you consider the Blue Jays have had the Twins' number for a long time now, as the Twins are just 8-20 in the last 28 meetings, and an even worse 2-8 in their last 10 played in Toronto. I'm going with the Blue Jays here.Game: Minnesota at Toronto (12:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Toronto +1.5 runs -130 (runline) (risk 3 to win 2.3) These are some pretty favorable odds on the runline when you consider the fact that the Twins on the road in their last 53 against a lefthander have just 14 wins. When you look at this season alone, the Twins are 4-19 on the road against a lefthander, and when you subtract out the one-run win, they would be 3-20 to a -1.5 runline situation they are facing here. There is extreme value on the runline, so I will play Toronto on the runline here.Game: Cincinnati at Colorado (3:10 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +200 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 6) It is hard to ignore just how much Jose Contreras has slipped, and he is now trying to make a living in a ball park noted for offense. That doesn't justify better than 2-1 odds on Colorado here. When you take what Kip Wells has done, back in his more comfortable role as a starter, he has given the Reds a big lift. He has made three starts and pitched to a 2.65 ERA, better, by far, what Contreras has been the last three years with an ERA of over five. This season alone the opponents have produced nine runs or more in one-third of his starts - not condusive to a moneyline with such inflated odds. I will go with Cincinnati in this one.Game: Cincinnati at Colorado (3:15 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati +1.5 runs +100 (runline) (risk 4 to win 4) We have a failing pitcher here that has no longer proven effective. Can you find comfort in a pitcher that has seen teams score 9+ runs in one-third of his starts, and then have to lay 1.5 runs on top of it? The Reds get the value here with Kip Wells doing a great job holding opponents down. He's going against a pitcher that seems to implode without notice, and getting a run and a half on top of it at plus odds. That is too much to pass up. I'll back the Reds on the runline here. Results: 2-2 MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters: MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-05-2009 |
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