Free Baseball Picks - September 10, 2007
2-1 yesterday with two more dog winners. Four more plays today...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay +148 (risk 4 to win 5.9)
Youkilis 5-23 (.217), Varitek 4-18 (.222), Ramirez 6-39 (.154), Ortiz 5-34 (.147), Lugo 2-11 (.182), Drew 0-3 (.000), Crisp 2-10 (.200) - total 22-138 (.159). That is the bulk of the Red Sox lineup, and those are the numbers against Scott Kazmir. The D-Rays are a 63-80 (.420) team, but with Kazmir on the hill they are 17-13 (.567). The Rays are hot right now as they have been 12-4 over their last 16. They have scored 128 runs over this stretch good for eight runs a game, out-hitting their suspect pitching, but now have a pitcher that can go deep into a game with a great track record against the Red Sox. Curt Schilling is now a different pitcher. His fastball is now topping off in the high 80s, touching 90, and the Red Sox have now gone 2-6 in his last eight starts. In those last eight games Schilling has pitched 46.1 innings, allowed 58 hits, while pitching to a 5.05 ERA. We have a live doggie in this one.
Game: Toronto at Detroit (7:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Toronto -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Roy Halladay is a workhorse. He has pitched eight innings or more in all of his last five starts. He almost always keeps his team in the game. The team he has fared the best against is these Detroit Tigers. Halladay owns an 11-2 career mark against the Tigers with a 1.83 ERA. He has improved upon that this season as he is 1-0 in two starts with a 1.69 ERA. Casey, Guillen, Infante, Inge, Ordonez and Sheffield are a combined 11-89 against Halladay good for a .124 average. It is hard to win games when almost your entire lineup struggles. The Tigers have played their way out of the AL Central race, and are fading fast in the wildcard race as well falling four games behind the Yankees. The Tigers are just 19-29 in their last 48 games for one of the worst marks in the AL. The Jays are at their best against LHP, sitting at 22-15 on the season and Kenny Rodgers has battled injuries all season. We like Toronto to take this game from the Tigers.
Game: Atlanta at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New York Mets -108 (risk 4 to win 3.7)
The Phillies swept the Mets four straight awhile back, and that served as a wake-up call. The Mets then went to Atlanta, where they seldom win, and put the broom on the Braves sweeping the three-game series. It didn't end there as the Mets have now gone on to win eight of nine, and the only loss came when manager Willie Randolph sat and rested almost the entire lineup in the series finale against the Reds. The Braves could muster just four runs vs. the Mets at home while being swept, and will send Tim Hudson to the mound for the series opener. Hudson has really been getting a lot of runs from the Braves as they have scored six a game with him on the hill hiding the fact that he really hasn't pitched well. Hudson had a 1.77 ERA in mid-May, but has since worked 128.2 innings, allowing 145 hits and an ERA of 4.34. His most recent starts have been even worse. His last six starts show 36 innings, 50 hits and a 5.75 ERA, and he has allowed at least three earned runs in everyone of them. Oliver Perez has maintained an ERA in the 3s virtually the entire season, and the Braves are fading fast, as they have wilted in the pennant drive going just 9-14 over their last 23. The Mets are hot, Hudson is not.
Game: Arizona at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Arizona +149 (risk 4 to win 6)
The Diamondbacks mean business in the NL West and have now rattled off five straight. The offense has caught fire as they have produced 7.4-runs per game (RPG) in the streak. Livan Hernandez has had a mediocre season, but does carry a 2.88 career ERA against the Giants, and has pitched much better down the stretch a 3.32 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are being very careful as Tim Lincecum accumulates innings. They thought of shutting him down early, had him skip a start, so we certainly don't expect him to pitch deep into this game no matter how he is doing. All teams have a run or two during the season, and the Giants had theirs winning 11 of 13, but have now slipped back into form winning just three of eight. The Giant offense has been nonexistent this season. They have produced three runs or less on 62 occasions, and have been shutout 10 times, while scoring just once in 13 others. We like the hot D-Backs to make it six straight.
Results: 3-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-09-2007
Zack Greinke gets the pleasure of trying to slow down A-Rod and the Yankees. He just may be able to do it. He has a 3.87 ERA on the year and has gone 19 straight innings without allowing a run. C...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2007
LA lost yesterday in the bottom of the ninth, but it was only their first loss to the Giants in San Francisco this season (they are 6-1). We like Los Angeles to bounce back with a win this afternoon. ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2007
The road and RHP is not the type of game where the Blue Jays produce their best results. The Jays are the fourth-worst road team to the moneyline in all of baseball, and near the bottom against RHP as...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2007
Weak offense and bad pitching = favorite? The St. Louis offense is too cold right now to be favored here. They have totaled just 18 hits in their last three games and they've notched 7 or fewer ru...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-05-2007
Tim Hudson has had a very streaky season. He started off better than just about any pitcher in baseball, as the Braves were 7-2 while he pitched to a 1.77 ERA into the middle of May. He then went cold...
