Baseball Pick - September 09, 2007
Winning day yesterday as we went 3-2 on our underdog plays. Three plays this afternoon.
| WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | NET |
| MLB |
255-210 last 465 picks |
55% | +$5840 |
| NFL |
14-6 Season-to-Date |
70% | +$2200 |
| CFB |
7-5 Season-to-Date |
58% | +$590 |
| TOTAL | | | +$8630 |
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: New York Yankees at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +200 (risk 3 to win 6)
Zack Greinke gets the pleasure of trying to slow down A-Rod and the Yankees. He just may be able to do it. He has a 3.87 ERA on the year and has gone 19 straight innings without allowing a run. Chein-Ming Wang has been nearly as good of late so it will be a tough task for the Royals. But, the Royals are a decent home team and the Yankees still own a losing record away from home on the year. Backing up Grienke is a good bullpen. New York has a tendency to let down at times throughout the year and this seems like a perfect opportunity after winning the first two games and the last one in such convincing fashion. The Yankees are 20-25 this year in their third consecutive road game. Meanwhile, KC wants to avoid the home sweep. Home underdogs of +175 or more off a loss facing an opponent of 2+ wins are a 51% winner (47-45) over the past five seasons. As we have mentioned in the past, this is not the "old" Royals. This year this team is almost .500 against the league's elite. They are 20-22 against teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. We give KC about a 50% shot at winning this game and at these odds that spells big-time value.
Game: San Diego at Colorado (3:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Colorado +110 (risk 4 to win 4.4)
The Rockies are 30-12 in their last 42 games at home, and we can't overlook them in a dog role in a place where they are out-playing everyone. They have been even better as a dog, as they have now gone 13-2 when they have been on the short side of the odds at home! Josh Fogg isn't going to win any Cy Young awards, but he has pitched two gems his last two starts, allowing just one and two earned runs respectively, and is 5-1 in his last six home starts. The Padres are just 2-4 in their last six, and Chris Young has not been nearly the same pitcher since he came off the DL with a strained oblique muscle. Young had gone 15 straight starts yielding as many as three earned runs just once, and had an ERA of 1.82. Since his return he has allowed four or more earned runs in four of the five starts. Young had served up four HRs the entire year, but has allowed four in just his last three outings. Young has truly lost his command, as he has also walked 17 in the 25 innings since his return, and his ERA has ballooned to 6.40. The Rockies just win at home, and we expect them to take this series.
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco (4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on San Francisco +114 (risk 4 to win 4.6)
Matt Cain has been a hard-luck pitcher all season, but those fortunes have changed in recent times. The Giants were 3-17 in his first 20 starts, even though his ERA has been steady all season long in the 3's, and the opposition has averaged only 4.1-runs per game (RPG) in his 28 starts. The Giants exploded for 15 and nine runs in two of his starts, but otherwise have scored just 67 in his other 26 starts, or just over two runs a game. That is the lowest run support for any pitcher in baseball this season. Those fortunes have righted themselves, and the Giants have now won five of his last eight starts, including four straight at home. It is because the Giants have played much better baseball going 14-8 in their last 22, their best stretch of the season. Brad Penny and the Dodgers have met a different fate. The Dodgers were rolling along 13 games over .500, and Penny was 11-1. Things have changed. The Dodgers have been just 22-27 since. The Dodgers were 14-2 in Penny's first 16 starts. Penny allowed three runs or less in those starts, but since has allowed three or more in eight starts, and his ERA over those 12 games is 4.12 (higher than Cain). The Giants take the series.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-08-2007
LA lost yesterday in the bottom of the ninth, but it was only their first loss to the Giants in San Francisco this season (they are 6-1). We like Los Angeles to bounce back with a win this afternoon. ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2007
The road and RHP is not the type of game where the Blue Jays produce their best results. The Jays are the fourth-worst road team to the moneyline in all of baseball, and near the bottom against RHP as...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2007
Weak offense and bad pitching = favorite? The St. Louis offense is too cold right now to be favored here. They have totaled just 18 hits in their last three games and they've notched 7 or fewer ru...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-05-2007
Tim Hudson has had a very streaky season. He started off better than just about any pitcher in baseball, as the Braves were 7-2 while he pitched to a 1.77 ERA into the middle of May. He then went cold...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-04-2007
The Rockies are a hot team right now having gone 7-3 in their last 10. They have also somewhat quietly become a devastating home team, as they stand at 26-9 in their last 35 at home. They score 5...
