Mlb Free Picks - September 08, 2007

Winning day yesterday. Today we like the board a lot - we have five plays including a 5-unit selection tonight.

Don't forget we have five college football plays today and five NFL plays tomorrow including a 5-unit selection.

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	252-208 last 460 picks	55%	+$5130
NFL	14-6 Season-to-Date	70%	+$2200
CFB	4-3 Season-to-Date	57%	+$370
TOTAL			+$7700

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers +120 (risk 3 to win 3.6)

LA lost yesterday in the bottom of the ninth, but it was only their first loss to the Giants in San Francisco this season (they are 6-1). We like Los Angeles to bounce back with a win this afternoon. The Dodgers just own San Francisco here having won 10 of the last 11. Barry Zito has been great this month but he hasn't notched any wins and stands at 9-11 on the season including 3-4 at home. The Giants' offense is just so weak that they have trouble keeping up with teams that score. The Giants are just 4-12 this season with Zito starting in close games (-125 to +125) and LA loves facing lefties like Zito. They are 23-17 averaging 4.7 per game against LHP and their bats have been solid lately. As we said, this is a matchup LA likes. They are 14-5 on the road this season against low scoring (4.3 or less) NL opponents. They've lost two of three but that's a positive thing as they are 17-7 this year on the road having lost two of their last three as they seem to find a way to summon the energy to avoid a long losing streak. Dodgers here.

Why are the Cubs favored here? They have lost four of their last five games and they start Carlos Zambrano. Normally that's a good thing for Chicago but not right now. Zambrano has now lost five-straight starts drawing boos even from his home crowd. Since nailing a $91.5 million contract extension, his ERA is a sky-high 9.57! When facing the Pirates, he's 0-4 this season with a 6.26 ERA. Chicago scores 4.3 per game on the road while Pittsburgh gets 4.6 per game at home. Right now Pittsburgh's offense is hot (5.4 runs per game over their last seven). Chicago is 15-20 this season on the road as a favorite. We'll back the hotter home team against the struggling Zambrano.

We were on Milwaukee early on, as they took the NL by storm then watched them crash and almost burn only to finally start winning again, as they have won six of nine. We were on Aaron Harang all season long, jumped off last start, and he lost. Jeff Suppan has had a mediocre season, but the one thing he does is keep his team in games. He has allowed more than three runs just once in his last six starts. After a good run the Reds have been just 4-7 in their last 11. Aaron Harang has had a great season for a bad team, but the signs are there that this run is going to balance out. Harang has really been serving up the long ball lately. He has offered up 11 in his last 34 innings of work, and the one thing this Brewer lineup possesses is power, and we believe that will be Harang's undoing tonight. We will ride the rejuvenated Brew Crew as a dog in this one.

It took John Smoltz to end the Nats five-game winning streak, but unfortunately for the Braves he won't be on the mound tonight. The Braves held tough in the NL East race, but their recent 8-13 run appears to have them on the outside looking in. It has been an inconsistent offense that has led to their demise as the Braves have posted 54 games scoring three runs or less. Chuck James has been struggling, and the Braves have won just two of his last seven starts. James has a 7.78 ERA in his last four starts, and the Nats have been at their best all season against LHP. The Nats are 17 games under .500 against RHP, but two games over against LHP, and are second in all of baseball at +11.64 units for their backers vs. southpaws. Matt Chico allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings in his last start, and the Braves own the dubious distinction of losing more games to LHP than any other in baseball at 31, and are a money burning -8.92 units on the season. Big odds for a hot team with a favorable pitching matchup say dog in this one!

The Rangers have moved to within one game in the loss column of the struggling A's. The Rangers have been under the radar since mid-June, as their overall record shows a mediocre team. We have taken notice! The Rangers started 23-42, and played themselves out of the race early, but this team has been amongst the best in the AL since June 13. The Rangers have gone 43-32, and for nearly half a season have played .573 baseball, and are at their hottest point right now, winning 10 of 12. That .573 percentage plays out to a 92-win team over a full season, and the 23-42 team that began the season plays out to a 105 loss team! This is a much different team, as they have played like a playoff team for 75 games! Oakland has been just the opposite, as they opened 35-29, but have faded to a 34-44 team over their last 78, and are in a bad stretch right now as they have gone 4-9 over their last 13. We have a playoff caliber team over the last half of the season, with a favorable pitching matchup at home with even odds? No doubt where the value is here. Kason Gabbard has pitched his teams to a 10-4 overall mark, equally split at 5-2 apiece for the Red Sox and Rangers. Chad Gaudin pitched the A's to 11-3 in his first 14 starts as he posted a 2.43 ERA. The A's have since been 5-9 in his last 14 starts, and Gaudin has held a poor 5.44 ERA over this recent stretch. The Rangers make it two straight over the A's.

Results: 3-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-07-2007
The road and RHP is not the type of game where the Blue Jays produce their best results. The Jays are the fourth-worst road team to the moneyline in all of baseball, and near the bottom against RHP as...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-06-2007
Weak offense and bad pitching = favorite? The St. Louis offense is too cold right now to be favored here. They have totaled just 18 hits in their last three games and they've notched 7 or fewer ru...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-05-2007
Tim Hudson has had a very streaky season. He started off better than just about any pitcher in baseball, as the Braves were 7-2 while he pitched to a 1.77 ERA into the middle of May. He then went cold...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-04-2007
The Rockies are a hot team right now having gone 7-3 in their last 10. They have also somewhat quietly become a devastating home team, as they stand at 26-9 in their last 35 at home. They score 5...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-03-2007
The Mets will have an emotional lift today, as Pedro Martinez makes his season debut. The Mets are already feeling good, having beaten the Braves in three straight, wiping out the ill feelings of gett...