darrell,

1-1 yesterday. Three picks tonight.

Wunderdog Picks Results Check out my 12-month performance here.

Please Tell A Friend about this newsletter and they'll thank you!

Good luck today...

Game: New York Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on New York Yankees -121 (risk 200 to win 165)

Cory Lidle is off a great showing against the Twins in which he allowed two hits and led the Yankees to an 8-1 win. He's got a winning record with the Yanks and a 3.38 ERA. Erik Bedard goes for the O's and he's been very good at home. But, Baltimore's offense is bad right now (3.1 per game over their last seven) and I don't think they can keep up with New York. Baltimore shrinks against elite competition (they are 9-15 the past two seasons vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5+ runs per game) and Bedard is 7-20 vs. winning teams over that span. In second-half of season play, he's 0-10 vs. teams at 54%+. Yankess here.

When you let the Pirates win 3 of 4 on your home turf, you have some serious issues. The Cubs now hit the road after that disaster. They score just 4.2 per game away from home and will be facing an Atlanta team that scores 5.1 at home and 5.5 per game vs. righties like Angel Guzman. Guzman is 0-4 with a 7.05 ERA (the Cubs are 0-8 with him starting). In 8 road starts, he's got an 8.65 ERA. Sure, Atlanta has had some offensive problems of late but they can surely get healthy against Guzman and the Cubs. Take Tim Hudson and the Bravos here.

The Pads have won seven of eight games and send Jake Peavy to the mound in an important game. Peavy has an average overall ERA but has pitched very well lately. He's got a 2.66 ERA over his last three starts and a 2.87 ERA in six August starts. Matt Cain goes for San Fran and he's also been pitching very well. Both of these teams have playoff hopes and this series will play a major role in the playoff picture. Both of these teams have been winning on defense - not offense. Should be another very low scoring game and in that type of game, with roughly equal starting pitching and hitting, we have to look to the bullpen. San Diego's has a 2.92 road ERA and winning record while San Francisco's has a 5.29 home ERA and .500 record. San Diego performs well against weak offenses (12-3 this year on the road vs. teams with OBP of .325 or worse). And, they do well in close matchups (23-16 on the road at +125 to -125). I like Peavy and this bullpen at even money.