Mlb Baseball Pick Online - September 06, 2007
Took the hit yesterday. I guess after Philly blows an 8-2 lead going into the ninth, we knew it was going to be a bad day. Today we like three picks...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Pittsbrugh at St. Louis (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Pittsbrugh +143 (risk 2 to win 2.9)
Weak offense and bad pitching = favorite? The St. Louis offense is too cold right now to be favored here. They have totaled just 18 hits in their last three games and they've notched 7 or fewer runs in five of their last eight games. MIke Maroth has been pretty bad this year posting a 5-6 mark (0-4 at home) with a 6.18 ERA. And he's getting much worse. He's lost his last three starts getting tagged for 25 runs in just 14 innings! And, he's a lefty which bodes well for Pittsburgh (they are -9.4 units vs. RHP and +1.2 vs. LHP). In contrast to the Cards, Pittsburgh bats are hot. They have notched 51 hits in their last four games and road underdogs of +125 to +175 batting .333+ over their last three games are 34-21 (62%) in September games over the past decade. The Cards are only 18-24 vs. bad teams (under 46%) in post All-Star play the past two seasons. We like Pittsburgh's chances here and see value at +143.
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -108 (risk 3 to win 2.8)
Jason Marquis was having a very good year. As the calendar turned to June his ERA was 2.84, and all was well. He has since pitched poorly as his ERA over his last 16 starts has been 5.36. Derek Lowe has had an up and down season, but he is at his best after a bad start. Lowe gave up six earned runs his last time out. This season Lowe has given up four earned runs or more in nine starts, and in his next start after allowing four or more he has been at his best, as he has pitched to a 2.95 ERA. We expect a good start from him today. The Dodgers followed up their worst stretch of the season where they went just 4-15, to have now won 13 of 20. The Cubs used a 19-5 run to put themselves in the race, but have been just 20-23 since. The Dodgers will win, and take this series three games to one.
Game: Cleveland at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +136 (risk 3 to win 4.1)
Don't look now but Cleveland is suddenly in contention for the best record in baseball and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Tribe is just one game back of the Angels, and only 2.5 behind Boston. The Indians are a red-hot team right now winning 11 of 12. Paul Byrd gets the start for Cleveland and the Indians are 11-3 in Byrd's last 14 starts. He comes in pitching his best, as he pitched a complete game shutout in his last start, and has a 3-0 mark against the Angels over his career. Kelvim Escobar has struggled for the Angels. He lasted less than three innings vs. the Rangers, and carries an ERA of close to 6 in his last three starts. Escobar went 19 starts with his walk total reaching 4 just once. Over his last six starts, it has reached 4 on three separate occasions, and his command has been off. Esobar has walked 19 in his last 36 innings, and that is not condusive to beating a hot team. We like the Tribe to take the opener here.
Results: 1-2
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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-02-2007
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2007
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