darrell,

Very interesting night last night with 7 shutouts - the most in one night since 1972.

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Game: Atlanta at New York Mets (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on New York Mets -122 (risk 200 to win 164)

In game two of this doubleheader Kyle Davies faces Oliver Perez. Perez has been awful this year but has fared OK at home. Davies has also been terrible. Over his last three starts (two in May and one this month after returning fromt he DL), he's given up 25 hits and 16 runs in just 8.3 innings! The Braves struggle against lefties though. They score just 4.6 per game vs. southpaws vs. about 5.5 per game vs. righties. Backing up Perez if he gets in trouble is a very solid Mets bullpen with a 3.20 home ERA. And the Mets should definitely put up some runs here vs. Davies. New York scores 5.3 per game vs. right-handers and 5.9 per gaem in day games. New York is 16-2 this season vs. weak pitchers with ERAs over 5.70! Road teams at +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse on the season are just 16-60 (21%) over the past decade. And, home teams batting .255 to .269 facing a poor starting pitcher (ERA over 5.70) are 36-6 (86%) in September over the last 5 seasons. Mets in a shootout for the small price here.

Who's pitching worse? Carlos Silva has a 6.83 ERA and 8-13 record. Jason Hammel has a 6.86 ERA and 0-2 record. No wonder this total is set at 10 runs. While the starting matchup is an ugly one without a real edge, Minnesota has a very good bullpen (3.65 road ERA) while Tampa Bay does not (5.87 home ERA). And Minnesota scores more - 4.6 per game on the road and 5.0 vs. right handed starters vs. 4.5 at home for Tampa and a lowly 4.0 vs. righties while Minny is 54-32 vs righties. Tampa is just 39-61 vs. right handers this season. Home underdogs off a game where they had 4 or less hits and their bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs are just 8-44 (15%) over the past decade. Better team in good situation for low price here.

Stick a fork in Dontrelle Willis. He gave up four home runs last night as Florida lost to Arizona. Tonight Florida starts Anibal Sanchez who has been nothing short of lights-out. He's 6-2 on the season with a 2.55 ERA in his starts. At home, his ERA is 1.36. Arizona lost six straight before last night's win as they are getting just 3.6 runs per game over that stretch. Florida won't get blanked again tonight against Edgar Gonzalez who has a 6.27 ERA and 1-2 record in six games. Florida is 13-7 this season revenging a loss in which they scored 1 or fewer runs and I like them here behind the arm of Sanchez.