Baseball Pick - September 05, 2009

We took it on the chin last night on the bases, but were probably due for that after the recent 12-2 run the four days prior. We went 4-1 in WNBA and hit our lone College Football play on Tulsa, while dropping the NFL pick. Today we return to the MLB diamond with four premium picks including a 4-unit play. Over the last three months we are up +145 units and sit at 203-145 (59%).

Check out all of today's premium picks including seven college football plays as we are fired-up for the first Saturday of action! We also roll out one premium WNBA pick. Check out all of today's premium picks here.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	99-77 last 176 picks	56%	+$3170
MLB	203-142 last 345 picks	59%	+$14510
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$37460

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Texas at Baltimore (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Baltimore +120 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.8)

The Texas Rangers have held themselves in the wildcard race in the AL, but certainly not from their contributions on the road where they are a sub-.500 team. Kevin Millwood has had a very good season for the Rangers, but it simply hasn't given the Rangers a lift on the road as they are in fact a worse team on the road with him on the hill. The Rangers have just a 4-9 record with Millwood on the mound when pitching on the road. The Rangers are also just 5-16 in Millwood's last 21 starts on the road against a team with a losing record. The Birds’ Brian Matusz pitched seven sharp innings against a tough hitting Indian team that averages six runs on the road against left-hand pitching, and will be very confident entering this one at home. I’m going with the Orioles here.

Tampa lost a tough one at home but Justin Verlander has been tough all season. They should have a much easier go facing Armando Galarraga here, and his 5+ ERA. The Rays have owned the spot they are in here, as they are now 73-27 in their last 100 home games vs a righthand starter, and an amazing 50-11 as a favorite of -151 to -200. That also includes a record of 16-4 to that range with Shield's on the mound. The Tigers have not found the win column too frequently on the road. With Galarraga on the mound on the road as an underdog, they are just 1-10. Looking at the Tigers overall mark of 23-56 in their last 79 as a road dog, it doesn't bode well for them in this spot either. I'll go with the Rays in this one.

The numbers here truly present an opportunity to cash in. The Tigers are just 23-56 as a road dog in their last 79, and the Rays have been crushing righthanders at home to the tune of a 70-30 mark. Put them in the role of a favorite of -151 to -200 and they are winning 50 of 61 (82%) of the time. With Shield's on the mound in that role, they've won 16 of 20 or 80% of the time. That's well worth a runline play at plus odds, so I'll go with the Rays on the runline here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a complete disaster on the road, as they have now gone 4-28 on the road in their last 32. They certainly have been a much more viable team at home, where they have been a completely different team at 35-30. Those numbers match very closely to the Cardinals road record of 37-30. So home vs. away these teams are in the same conversation. That conversation becomes much different when you consider that Ross Olendorf has by far been the most effective starter for the Pirates, and especially at home. Olendorf's last nine starts at home have resulted in eight Pirate wins. That pales in contrast to the Card's starter, Mitchell Boggs who is pitching to an ERA over 6 on the road. So we start even, with these teams record-wise home vs. away, but the value is found with the starting pitchers and the Pirates have a decided edge here. I'll go with Pittsburgh here.

Results: 1-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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• Updated today: baseball sports book.
• Don't forget to visit our Baseball odds and lines.
• Here we show our sports handicapping mlb picks.
• Here we show our baseball ATS recrds.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-04-2009
The Minnesota Twins have played a lot better over their last 15 games as they have gone 11-4, and have even been winning on the road, taking five of their last six. The Indians had a nice run, but the...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-03-2009
The Yankees will move to Chad Gaudin to start vs. the Jays. Gaudin had no success in San Diego, and his biggest problem is his command. The Yankees are his sixth team in just seven years, and it is be...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-02-2009
The Pirates have really mailed it in, especially on the road. They have dropped all six games on their current road trip and last night's game was essentially over in the 1st inning when Cincinnat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2009
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped both games yesterday, making their road record dip to 18-48. The Pirates have now lost their last nine on the road, and 14 of their last 15. It also means they are now 3...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2009
Zack Greinke has posted a 2.43 ERA this season, going seven full innings on average in the process. He's allowed just 49 earned runs and 39 walks in 181 innings pitched, while striking out 197. Ov...