Mlb Picks - September 05, 2007
We won again yesterday to push our MLB record to 17-9 for 65% and +39.8 units over the last eight days. Three picks today...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia +138 (risk 4 to win 5.5)
Tim Hudson has had a very streaky season. He started off better than just about any pitcher in baseball, as the Braves were 7-2 while he pitched to a 1.77 ERA into the middle of May. He then went cold, and the Braves were 2-5 in his next seven starts. He caught fire again, and the Braves won his next 11 starts. He has now gone cold again, as the Braves have dropped his last two starts. A close look at his numbers reveal that he has been average, or even slightly below since mid May. Hudson has worked 121 innings allowing 133 hits, and has pitched to an ERA of 4.24 since May 15. His last five outings have been even worse, as he has pitched to a 5.23 ERA. The Braves are playing themselves right out of any post-season hopes, as they have now gone 6-13 in their last 19 games. They have dropped four of their last five, scoring just 11 runs in the process, or 2.2 a game, and hitting just .214 as a team. The Phillies have gone 7-3 in their last 10, scoring 6.8-runs per game. Kyle Kendrick has kept the Phillies in every game he has pitched, and the Phil's have gone 10-5 with him on the hill, including 3-0 in his last three. The Phillies take game 3.
Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Baltimore +134 (risk 3 to win 4)
Tampa Bay's been on quite a run having won nine of thirteen. But, can they keep this up? They have been scoring like crazy which has covered up the fact that they have allowed 6+ runs in five of their last eight games. They start Andy Sonnanstine tonight who is 4-9 on the year including 1-5 at home with a 6.51 ERA. Backking him up is a bullpen with a 6.17 ERA. At home on the season, the D-Rays score just 4.5 runs per game while Baltimore averages 4.7 on the road. The Orioles feast on bad defensive teams. They are 34-15 the past three seasons vs. AL opponents that allow 5.7+ runs per game (Tampa Bay gives up 5.9 per game on average and 6.2 per game vs. division foes). Baltimore owns a winning record vs. division opponents this season and we like the odds here against a horrible team that is due to come back down to earth.
Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Dodgers +140 (risk 4 to win 5.6)
Ted Lilly has struggled since around the middle of May when he had an ERA of 2.53. He has since worked 120 innings, and pitched to a 4.50 ERA. His recent struggles have shown numbers get even worse, as he has posted a 6.57 ERA in his last four starts. His record stands at an impressive 13-7, but the Cubs are 2-6 in games in which he has not gotten a decision, so they are only 15-13 overall. The Dodgers have had success against LHP all season, standing in plus units for the season. And they have hit Lilly hard the two times they have faced him this season. The Dodgers are playing very well having won 7 of 9 and 13 of 19. The Cubs are just 4-6 in their last 10, and that includes dropping the first two in this series. Eric Stults has only made three starts, but has kept the Dodgers in every game, and the Dodgers pen is amongst the best in baseball this season. We like LA to make it three straight here.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-04-2007
The Rockies are a hot team right now having gone 7-3 in their last 10. They have also somewhat quietly become a devastating home team, as they stand at 26-9 in their last 35 at home. They score 5...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-03-2007
The Mets will have an emotional lift today, as Pedro Martinez makes his season debut. The Mets are already feeling good, having beaten the Braves in three straight, wiping out the ill feelings of gett...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-02-2007
Philadelphia has been the hotter of these two teams but yesterday's 6-run win by Florida broke that up. Today Florida gets to tee off on Adam Eaton who boasts a 6.23 ERA (9.69 over his has three s...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2007
The Royals keep getting treated, well... like the Royals by the oddsmakers. This is a team that has been buried at the bottom of the AL Central for years. But the 2007 version isn't the same ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-31-2007
The Yankees are a very powerful team at home, and have been scoring runs in big chunks, especially vs. mediocre pitching. There is also a history of this team playing some slugfests after the hated Re...
