darrell,

2-1 yesterday. Four picks tonight...

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Game: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 star on Boston +121 (risk 100 to win 121)

I've been one to beat up on Boston of late as they have folded like a cheap suit after New York ripped their heart out in that 5-0 series. But, they've shown a little life of late and the further that NY series gets, the more Boston will recover. It's been long enough. Boston has won 3 of their last five including wins against Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly and Jon Garland. That's pretty good (even though they didn't deserve the Halladay win). Boston is now 3-1 this season vs. Chicago. Things are all of a sudden going Boston's way and the opposite is true for Chicago. They have lost four of five games including losses vs. a loss to Tampa Bay and two losses to Kansas City! The White Sox are just 14-22 vs. winning teams in the second half of the season. They start Javier Vazquez who is 1-4 vs. Boston and 9-21 on the road as a favorite of -100 to -150. While Chicago "should" win this, I feel Boston has the psychological edge and momentum and given that they are 42-26 at home this season, I'll take them as an underdog.

Very hot vs. very cold in this one. Arizona has dropped 14 of their last 16 games and six straight. Florida, meanwhile, has won five in a row and 14 of 16. The Marlins are 6-2 vs. Arizona at home the past three seasons and 3-1 in both locations this year. Dontrelle Willis looks to continue the domination. He's hot right now too with a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts. Florida is scoring 6.7 per game during their last seven games as compared to 4.0 for Arizona. I love the momentum here as Florida is 8-1 at home this season after 4+ wins and I can't see Arizona finding a solution to their problems in this game. Marlins are the play.

Mike Mussina returns from the DL to face Jorge De La Rosa. In his last outing, Mussina gave up three hits and got 11 strikeouts in a shutout. He's 13-5 on the year with a 3.61 ERA. Against KC he's got a 3.41 ERA. De La Rosas is 1-4 on the year with an 8.22 ERA. The Yankees won 12-5 last game to set the tone for this series. New York knows how to ride offensive momentum as they are 22-4 this season after a game in which 15+ runs were scored. Teams at 54%-62% off two wins are 182-69 (73%) vs.terrible teams (under 38%) over the past five seasons. Also, road favorites off 2 straight games with at least 7 more hits than their opponent are 48-16 (75%) over the last decade. Finally, road favorites scoring 5.4+ runs/game off 2 straight wins by 4 runs or more facing a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00+) are 35-10 (78%) over the past ten years. Big line but Yankees should roll big here.

We got the 1-0 win on the Angels yesterday. Despite failing to score early on with the bases loaded and one out, they were able to shut out the O's to get the win. That's how bad Balimore can be on the road. The Orioles are now 25-42 away from home scoring 4.4 per game. Over their last seven games they are averaging just 3.9 per game. I felt good going into the late innings last night as the Angels bullpen has a 20-5 save mark and 3.24 ERA at home. Tonight it doesn't get any easier for the struggling Baltimore offense as they face John Lackey who has a 3.63 ERA. Facing him is Kris Benson who is 1-5 since July. Teams off a win by 2 runs or less facing an opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games are 104-52 (67%) over the last 5 seasons. Angels again here.