Mlb Game Predictions - September 04, 2009

We missed on our lone MLB pick last night. We are on a 12-2 run over the last week, good for +36.3 units. Over the last three months, we are steamrolling at 60% at 199-134 for +168 units.

We roll out a huge day today featuring 12 premium picks from seven games including a 5-unit underdog pick...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	95-76 last 171 picks	56%	+$2650
MLB	199-134 last 333 picks	60%	+$16780
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$39210

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Minnesota Twins have played a lot better over their last 15 games as they have gone 11-4, and have even been winning on the road, taking five of their last six. The Indians had a nice run, but they are back to losing, having dropped four straight. The Twins have really benefitted from a day off as they are now 25-10 following an off day. They have also beaten up on poor pitching as they are 7-1 in their last eight against a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. The Indians are 0-7 in Sower's last seven starts at home against a team with a winning record, and just 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a team over 500. I like the hot Twins to win here against a struggling Indians team.

The Cleveland Indians traded away their best hitter in Victor Martinez, and their best pitcher in Cliff Lee. The Tribe is now building for the future, and they are truly headed for a disasterous September, as they have dropped their last four. Jeremy Sowers certainly has not been the answer at home against teams with a winning record, as the Indians have dropped his last seven home starts vs. a winning team. The Twins are suddenly hot with 11 wins in their last 15, and are 5-1 in their last six on the road. That spells a runline play here on the Twins.

The Washington Nationals have had their problems this season, and the worst of those problems have been on the road against right-hand pitching. The Nats consequently, find themselves against righthand pitching quite frequently. Today, they find themselves in a much more favorable position playing at home vs. a left-hand starter.  They have not lost a home game since June 24 against a lefty pitcher - and that was Jon Lester of the Red Sox. Their last 15 games at home have seen them at 9-6, included in those 15 games was a three-game sweep of these same Florida Marlins they face tonight. The Marlins come in at just 1-4 in their last five on the road. I like Washington in this one.

While Justin Verlander has to be respected, neither he nor his Tigers teammates have earned enough respect to be even-up vs. the Rays at home. The Rays are king of the home field as they are 70-30 in their last 100 here against a team with a losing road record. While the Tigers have been great at home, they have been just 27-39 on the road, and have won just six of their last 21 on the highway. The Rays have even ramped-it-up higher at home against a right-hand starter as they are now 73-26 in their last 99 here against a righty. When they wheel out Niemann to start at home, they have won their last seven as a home chalk and 12 of his last 15 as a favorite overall. The Tigers are just 5-16 in their last 21 on field turf, and it will take more than Verlander to win this one. I’m going with the Rays here.

The Rays at home are becoming almost an automatic play on, as they are 73-26 in their last 99 here against a righthand pitcher. The Tigers are futile on the road as they are just 6-21 over their last 27, and the Rays with Niemann on the hill, have taken their last seven at home as a favorite. The Tigers have one thing going for them and that is Verlander, while the Rays have everything in place to be the valued side here, so I'll go with Tampa on the runline.

The Cincinnati Reds looked good sweeping the Pirates in four straight, but the Pirates are 4-28 in their last 32 on the road. This is a Reds team that is 3-11 in their last 14 on the road against a team with a winning record. Atlanta is still playing for a potential wildcard, so they will be focused here. Bronson Arroyo has pitched better of late, but with that said the Reds stand at just 2-10 in his last 12 starts on the road as a dog, and just 1-10 against a team with a winning record this season. The Braves rise to the occasion bigtime after a loss, as they are now 17-4 after dropping a game. Derek Lowe has delivered the Braves to six straight wins when he pitches off the home mound. I like Atlanta to take this one.

The Reds certainly come in here looking good off a four game sweep of the Pirates. A closer look shows the Pirates have packed it in at 4-28 in their last 32 on the road. Then you add in the Reds 3-11 mark on the road themselves in their last 14 against a winning team. Plug in the fact that with Bronson Arroyo on the hill vs. a winning team on the road, the Reds slip to 1-10. Then the Atlanta factor with Derek Lowe, as they have won his last six home starts, all point to Atlanta on the runline.

The Brewers got a great performance from Jeff Suppan in his last outing as he yielded just one run over six innings. The Giants are not a team that scores a lot of runs, and sit at the bottom of the majors scoring just 3.7 runs a game. The Brewers certainly have been a better choice at home above the .500 mark, but the bats come alive against left-hand pitching as they average 5.5 runs a game. Barry Zito certainly hasn't provided security when pitching against teams in the NL Central, as the Giants are just 4-18 in his last 22 starts against them. Milwaukee has not been a safe haven for the Giants either, as they are just 5-16 in their last 21 played here, and they have dropped their last four with Zito on the mound. I'll side with Milwaukee here.

The Giants have made some hay at home winning two of every three games they play, but are losers on the road. Their worst spot is right where they will be for this one as they are 4-18 in Barry Zito's last 22 starts vs. the NL Central. They are also just 5-16 in their last 21 games played in Milwaukee. Zito hasn't gotten it done here either as the Giants have dropped their last four. The Giants are the lowest-scoring team on the road, and the Brewers are at their best vs. lefthand pitching, producing 5.5 runs a game. I'm going with Milwaukee on the runline.

A top-level pitching matchup goes in Houston tonight as Wandy Rodriguez squares off against the Phillies newl- acquired ace Cliff Lee. Lee showed his human nature last time out, as after 10-consecutive quality starts, he allowed six earned runs. Lee's teams are actually under .500 in his 13 road starts on the season, and he has proven vulnerable after an outing allowing five runs or more as he has pitched to a 5.73 ERA after allowing 5+. Wandy Rodriguez has had a breakout year for the Astros, and has pitched to a stellar 1.72 ERA in all of his home starts combined - surely enough to make this a live dog. I'll go with Houston here.

The Angels started poorly with a lot of injuries, then went on a rampage - a pace virtually impossible to maintain and they have now started to slide. The Angels are now just 5-9 in their last 14 games, and the offense which was white-hot, has cooled down, scoring just a single run in the last two games. They have now scored four runs or less in 10 of their last 15 games. This is after scoring five or more in 22 of their previous 27, so they are very vulnerable right now. The Royals have been bouncing back off a loss with a 4-1 mark in their last five. Jered Weaver has been a top pitcher, but not against the Royals as the Angels have dropped their last four with him on the mound against KC. I'll go with Kansas City here.

The Angels have not been scoring much. After a torrid pace of scoring 5+ in 22 of 27 games, they are now in an expected downturn, having scored four or less in 10 of their last 15. They also have a good pitcher on the mound, but also one that has never solved the Royals as they are 0-4 in his last four starts against them. It's hard to back a team on the runline that is having trouble offensively, and has scored just a single run in their last 18 innings. This is a good spot for the Royals on the runline, so I will go with them at +1.5.

Results: 4-8

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-03-2009
The Yankees will move to Chad Gaudin to start vs. the Jays. Gaudin had no success in San Diego, and his biggest problem is his command. The Yankees are his sixth team in just seven years, and it is be...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-02-2009
The Pirates have really mailed it in, especially on the road. They have dropped all six games on their current road trip and last night's game was essentially over in the 1st inning when Cincinnat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2009
The Pittsburgh Pirates dropped both games yesterday, making their road record dip to 18-48. The Pirates have now lost their last nine on the road, and 14 of their last 15. It also means they are now 3...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2009
Zack Greinke has posted a 2.43 ERA this season, going seven full innings on average in the process. He's allowed just 49 earned runs and 39 walks in 181 innings pitched, while striking out 197. Ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2009
Jeremy Sowers has pitched much better for the Indians of late. Despite a poor performance in his last outing, his previous five outings showed an impressive 3.09 ERA. The Orioles counter with rookie C...