Baseball Free Picks - September 03, 2008

We had a setback yesterday and gave back a few units. Today we really like the big board as we roll with seven premium MLB picks including a 4-unit play!

Over the last two weeks our MLB picks are hitting 57% (24-18) for +13.8 units.

Every year we see MLB lines getting out of hand once September rolls around and this season is no different. We have taken this into consideration and have done some recent research that highlights the value on certain big dogs in September and we have several today that fit those criteria.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Baltimore at Boston (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston -1.5 runs -163 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

The Red Sox have been a solid choice at home all season long as they have put together a 47-19 mark at Fenway. While Baltimore has been a solid .500+ team at home they have struggled when leaving the friendly confines of Camden Yards to the tune of a 30-44 mark. The task becomes monumental today as the face Diasuke Matsuzaka. The Sox have gone 20-4 in his 24 starts on the season, including nine of his last 10. The BoSox have also been lethal on sub .500 teams at Fenway where they have posted a 25-4 mark this season. Jeremy Guthrie may have given the O's a shot, but he has been scratched from this start, and the O's will use a committee of pitchers starting with Lance Cormier. Not a recipe to win at Fenway. The Red Sox on the runline is the play here.

I am not sure how the Giants feel about paying Barry Zito 14.5 million this year and see them go 0-9 in his first nine starts. I guess the only way to go from there is up. It has been quite a bit better as the Giants are now 5-5 in his last 10 starts. Zito did not pitch any games in his first 21 starts without allowing a run. The good news for the Giants is that two of his last six starts have resulted in him not allowing a run. It is also worth noting that the Rockies’ Aaron Cook has been battling a tight back for the past several weeks, limiting innings in his starts. The Giants have hit Cook well in his starts against them this season, as they have totaled at least nine hits in each one. Two key components to the Rockies’ attack have poor numbers against Zito as with Matt Holliday has hit only .188, and Garrett Atkins only .154. Zito has yet to face the Rockies this season and has posted a successful 2.73 ERA against them in five starts. The Rockies are overpriced here, so we will take a shot on the Giants.

These are two struggling teams and when that is the case, home is the place to be. They are knotted at one game apiece in this series, and we like the D-Backs. They win big, or lose big, scoring 19 runs in their last eight losses, yet 69 runs in their last nine wins. What that tells us is if we like them here, which we do, the runline is the place to be. The D-Backs are 12-1 in their last 13 wins if giving 1.5 runs. The Cards are now 1-7 to a +1.5 runline in their last eight losses. Kyle Lohse was looking great early, and off to a 12-2 start. Remember that he has never won more than 13 games in a season, and he has reverted to old form as the Cards have now dropped seven of his last eight starts including five in a row. The D-backs win big and we have them on the runline here.

This line is too high. Yes, Pittsburgh is having their troubles, but they broke through last game. The Reds are a losing team (barely .500 at home) and average just 4.0 runs per game against RHP. They are a sub-.500 team this season as a favorite! Edinson Volquez has been very effective this year but he's showing signs of slowing down as his ERA has gone up 1.50 points in his last three starts as compared to his season average. Since last season, the Pirates are actually 10-3 on the road in late season play against teams that average fewer than 4.4 runs per game. Cincinnati is only 25-40 this season vs. losing teams. They are also 3-13 this season revenging a one-run loss. We'll go with the line value here and back the Pirates.

The Cubs have been a top team all season, but even top teams hit a rut and the Cubs have found a giant pothole as we head down the stretch. This is a team that went 11-15 from late June to late July, and they are heading in that direction again with four straight losses - all at home. The Astros meanwhile are under the radar at 26-11 in their last 37 games, having now won seven straight. Pitching has been the key, with 14 of the 26 wins coming with the opponent scoring two runs or less. The Astros have already beaten Dempster twice this season and for his career he has not fared well against them, posting a 5.24 lifetime ERA. This is a great spot for a big dog as we like the hot Astros here against a suddenly cold Cubs team.

This is a matchup of two teams where the season can't end fast enough. Both finished August reaching the unsightly 20 loss plateau as neither team has been able to generate offense. How bad has it been for the A's to push across runs? The A's have managed just 126 runs in their last 45 games, resulting in 29 UNDERS to just 16 OVERS. The Royals’ offense hasn't fared much better as they have produced just 139 runs in their last 38 games or 3.65 runs a game. That has led to 25 UNDERS to 13 OVERS. The combined tally here is 83 games, 54 UNDERS to 29 OVERS. These teams have now met four times during their respective offensive droughts, resulting in four UNDERS. We will not buck the trend as the UNDER is the play here.

The Padres have had a dismal season with a lack of scoring punch to their offense, but tonight they get a shot at a pitcher they have been able to do some damage against. Hiroki Kuroda has made two starts against the Padres getting touched up for six runs in just 2.1 innings his last time out against them. Wade LeBlanc gets his first major-league start for the Padres, and we often see veteran major-league hitters struggle when seeing a pitcher for the first time. The Padres are in a good stretch right now as they are 5-3 over their last eight games. Despite winning four straight, the Dodgers are just 5-10 overall in their last 15. We think this is an overlay with the Pads having success against Kuroda, so we will back them here.

Results: 3-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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• View 2008 MLB prior pick results here.
• Take a look at our 2008 MLB handicapping preview here.
• Take a look at our MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out our updated free mlb picks.
• Here we show our sports betting baseball.
• Read our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• View MLB prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-02-2008
Glen Perkins owns an awesome 12-3 record but his ERA isn't what you might expect with that kind of record (it is 4.00). The fact is, he's pitching has been average but he's been ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2008
The Rockies have to have Arizona and Los Angeles nervous. Last year we all saw them come from nowhere to take the division and stretch it all the way to the World Series. The Rockies are on a 25-16 st...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-31-2008
The Giants average just 3.9 runs per game. They own a 29-37 road mark and a 19-30 record in day games this season. The Reds, terrible on the road, are a decent, winning team at home. The pitching matc...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2008
The Rays have put an end to any thoughts of their demise this late in the season - this is just flat out a good team. The Rays are 50-19 at home and 60-32 against right-handed pitching overall. The Ra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2008
The Twins are in a battle in the AL Central and are just 1.5 games in back of the White Sox, and are chasing the Red Sox for the wildcard as well. Kevin Slowey has been masterful of late for the Twins...