Major League Baseball Pick - September 03, 2007
We finished a perfect 4-0 all underdog day with the Rangers as a +204 dog to cap off a day that netted +22.1 units of profit ($2,210 for $100 players). It was, as far as we can remember, the biggest daily net unit gain for a single sport for us ever.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: New York Mets at Cincinnati (1:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Mets +110 (risk 3 to win 3.3)
The Mets will have an emotional lift today, as Pedro Martinez makes his season debut. The Mets are already feeling good, having beaten the Braves in three straight, wiping out the ill feelings of getting swept by the Phillies. The Reds will start Aaron Harang who has been winning with regularity. The Reds have won 14 straight Harang starts, if you don't count the game he left in the first inning with back stiffness. We have ridden Harang most of the way, but we get off today! Harang worked a gem his last time out pitching a complete game, two-hit shutout. That is where the interest comes in this one. Harang has allowed no earned runs on five occasions this season, and has been awful in his next start. Harang has pitched to a 6.66 ERA in a start following a zero earned-run performance! The Reds have lost three straight, and five of seven, while the Mets come in with a three-game winning streak. The Mets have surprised all season, when you expect them to win, they lose, and when you expect them to lose, they win. The Mets have been 8-2 on the road as a dog, in their last 10. And, the current Mets roster has a lifetime .360 average against Harang. The Mets surprise again!
Game: Houston at Milwaukee (2:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Houston +113 (risk 3 to win 3.4)
Roy Oswalt as an underdog? We'll take it, especially the way he is pitching right now. The Astros have won his last eight starts, and are 11-1 in his last 12 overall. Oswalt is a great pitcher, and is in the zone right now. Over his last seven starts has allowed only 5 runs, good for a 1.05 ERA. In his last eight starts, the Astros have out-scored their opponent 39-11! That means the pen isn't giving up anything either. Ben Sheets is capable of matching 0's with Oswalt, but he is just off the DL. He pitched well in his first game back, but the second game is always the toughest. The Brewers have been one of the worst teams in the league over their last 100 games, as they have just a 44-56 mark. We can't refuse a pitcher that is allowing nothing as a dog here.
Game: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +116 (risk 3 to win 3.5)
The red-hot Cleveland Indians invade the Twin Cities today in a classic pitching duel featuring Johan Santana vs. C.C. Sabathia. Santana has had his usual good year, but the Twins are just not the same team they have been in recent years. Therefore, they are just 16-12 in Santana starts. Santana has not pitched as well of late, as in his last eight starts he is pitching to a 4.15 ERA. Sabathia has been steady right through the season, and has been right their with the mighty Santana on the season. Sabathia has 17 starts allowing 2 runs or less compared to 16 for Santana. And Sabathia has 22 starts allowing 3 or less to Santana's 21. Sabthia is also pitching to a 2.22 ERA over his last eight games. The Indians have a great history vs. Santana. They are 5-0 against him in his last five decisions. Santana has allowed 23 HR's this season, including 5 in his last two outings, and the Indians have touched him up for 14. The Indians have dominated this Twin team this season, as they stand 11-4 and Santana is 0-4 vs. the Tribe this season. The Indians have out-scored the Twins in head-to-head play 78-42 (5.2 - 2.8 runs per game). The Indians are 10-2 in their last 12, and we look for them to take game one in Minnesota.
Game: Toronto at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Toronto +173 (risk 3 to win 5.2)
The Red Sox are concerned about Diasuke Matsusaka. His innings are mounting and he has not pitched this much over his entire career. When he pitched in Japan to a 108-60 career record, his worst two years were when he pitched the most innings. His combined record in those years was just a mediocre 29-28. He has now reached 176 innings pitched, and his numbers are beginning to show wear. The Red Sox are just 6-11 in his last 17 starts, and have lost his last four. Matsusaka has worked 18.1 innings in his last three starts to an ERA of 6.38. His undoing is his bouts with wildness, as he has walked 14 in his last four starts in just 25 innings. The Red Sox have beat up on the weaker sisters in baseball, but stand just 10-14 in their last 24 games played against teams that are over .500. The Jays are streaking right now as they have won three in a row, and five of six. Jesse Litsch has pitched very well. His last seven starts have produced an ERA of just 2.47 and he keeps the Jays in every game he takes the hill. The Jays are not intimidated by Fenway, as they have won six of the last eight times they have come in here. We like the Jays to take the opener.
Results: 3-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
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