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It's UNDERDOG Sunday. Five picks today including 4 very live underdogs...

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Game: Minnesota at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Minnesota +133 (risk 200 to win 266)

Darrel Rasner goes for New York making his first start. He's opposed by Matt Garza who has a full four games under his belt. Garza has been pitching well posting a 2.41 ERA over his last three starts. The Twins perform well against he mighty AL East. They won last night pushing their record to 34-20 vs. the division over the past two seasons. I like their momentum after holding NY to just one run last night. This season, Minnesota is 50-28 following a win and 31-13 after allowing 2 runs or less. They are 43-21 over the past two seasons following a win by 4+ runs. The Twinkies are 14-5 this season vs. the league's elite (teams at 54%+). I think they have the starting pitching advantage and bullpen advantage here and they have shown they don't back down against good teams. I'll take that at +135.

Arizona comes in off four straight losses. They've dropped 12 of 15. Washington has found some momentum, winning three straight. The Nationals are an amazing 12-2 (8-0 at home) vs. Arizona the past three seasons. So why is Washington a home dog here? Well, they are facing Brandon Webb who is 14-5 with a 3.02 ERA. But, he's not as good on the road (4 of his 5 losses have come on the road) and he's struggled a bit of late (5.40 ERA his last three). And, he's been a big fat loser vs. Washington in the past with 0 wins in two starts and a 7.10 ERA. Arizona is a losing road team that is scoring 3.7 runs per game right now. And they are 4-10 on teh road as a favorite. That's good enough for me. Nats here.

Toronto owns an 8-6 record against the BoSox this season including 4-4 here in Beantown. Josh Becket has a 6-4 home record but that's due to very good run support. His ERA is an average 4.83 at home and over his last three starts it's pushed up to 5.78. Gustavo Chacin has a better road ERA (4.79). So I view the starting matchup as about even. So this comes down to other factors. Boston has shown a little life having won two games in this series so far after falling apart in late August. But, they still aren't scoring. They've scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 13 games! That's not the kind of run support Beckett needs. They put up 6 runs in the opener vs. Halladay but they managed just 3 total runs in the past two games. They do NOT like facing left handers like Chacin. While scoring about 5.5 runs per game vs. righties, they score nearly a full run less versus southpaws (4.6). Their record against right-handers: 53-38 (58%). Versus lefties: 20-25 (44%). Now that's a huge difference. Maybe that's why Chacin Toronto is 4-1 vs. Boston with Chacin starting. Meanwhile, Boston is 1-3 vs. the Jays with Beckett starting. Boston is 6-13 since the All-Star break vs. winning teams and they just don't deserve to lay this kind of wood right now. Blue Jays here.

San Francisco scores 4.4 per game on the road (29-38 record). The Giants are 20-35 vs. losing teams and 7-13 as a road favorite this season. They just aren't a team that's deserving of this kind of line. Jason Schmidt is good at home but not on the road. Away from the Bay he's 3-7. Over his last three starts he's got a 7.02 ERA. Angel Guzman has been horrible on the road but not awful at home. Worth a stab at +150 fading a bad team with a pitcher who's not proven he can win on the road.

Our lone favorite play today features a 44-26 home team vs. a 27-41 road team. LA has won seven straight while Colorado has lost four of five. The Dodgers score 5.6 per game at home (7.0 per game over their current win streak) while the Rockies score 4.2 per game on the road. Why is this line not bigger? Aaron Sele has struggled of late but he's still 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA at home! Byung-Hyun Kim is 2-6 on the road with a 7.62 ERA and he's struggled even more lately (0-3 with a 12.21 ERA). Why is this line not bigger I ask again? Is it because Colorado does well agains the Dodgers? No. LA is 12-3 vs. Colorado this season including 8-1 here in LA! Is it because Colorado performs well vs. good teams? No. The Rocks are 1-13 on the road vs. teams at 54%+. Is it because LA suffers a letdown after a big win (they won 14-5 last night)? No. LA is 12-1 after a 10+ run performance this season. I honestly don't know why this line is so low. Take the Dodgers.