Free Baseball Pick - September 02, 2007
Missed them all yesterday. Look to bounce back today...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Philadelphia at Florida (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Florida +108 (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Philadelphia has been the hotter of these two teams but yesterday's 6-run win by Florida broke that up. Today Florida gets to tee off on Adam Eaton who boasts a 6.23 ERA (9.69 over his has three starts). Eaton is just 3-14 on the road vs. bad teams (under 46%). Scott Olsen hasn't been great but he's been much better than that. On the road he's won just two games but at home this year, he's 7-5. Florida has the better bullpen too. Florida has won five of eight overall from the Phils this season and we like them here in this matchup at home.
Game: New York Mets at Atlanta (1:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on New York Mets +156 (risk 4 to win 6.2)
The Mets looked down and out after getting swept by the Phillies, but have bounced back by easily taking the first two games here. Glavine has pitched very well of late, allowing just 2 runs or less in five of his last six starts, while pitching to a 2.87 ERA. The Braves have begun to play themselves right out of the race, as they have gone just 5-11 over their last 16 games. The offense has once again gone cold, as they have scored 1 run or less in four of their last six, and that is even more than John Smoltz can overcome. The Braves are just 4-6 in Smoltz' last 10 starts. They have been out-scored in those ten games 48-39. The problem has been the bullpen, which has coughed up 20 runs in those 10 games, so even when Smoltz pitches well, their has been an average of an additional 2 runs allowed by the Braves pen per game. Smoltz has pitched all but 22 innings of those last 10 starts, so the pen has allowed 20 runs in 22 innings, negating his effectiveness. We will ride the Mets to the sweep here.
Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (2:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Kansas City +113 (risk 4 to win 4.5)
Brian Bannister has emerged as the ace of this Royals staff. Kansas City has won his last three starts, seven of his last eight, and 12 of his last 16. He turns a sub-.500 team into a solid team when he takes the hill. Bannister has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last eight starts, while pitching to a slender 2.32 ERA. The Twins were 8-3 in Boof Bonser's first 11 starts, and he was pitching to an ERA in the mid 3's. Things have changed as the league has caught up with him, and the Twins are now just 4-12 in his last 16 starts. His ERA over those last 16 starts has ballooned to 5.46. The Royals are a very live dog today, and we will ride them.
Game: Texas at Los Angeles Angels (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Texas +204 (risk 4 to win 8.2)
Texas has shown that it can hang with the Angels. The Rangers have been on a nice run, as they have won six of their last seven. They are also 12-7 in their last 19 and have been swinging the bats very well. Kason Gabbard has pitched very well. He led the Red Sox to five wins in seven starts and since being traded to Texas, has led the Rangers to four wins in his six starts. Gabbard has allowed more than 3 runs in just two of his 13 starts, so he keeps his team in the game. John Lackey has had a great season to date, but his nemesis over his career has been the Texas Rangers. Lackey is 9-8 with a 5.20 ERA vs. the Rangers over his career. The Angels absolutely destroy RHP as they possess a 65-40 mark. But, they really have struggled vs. LHP, as they are a mediocre 15-15, and that includes just 10-8 at home. The Rangers have a chance to steal one here with some huge odds.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-01-2007
The Royals keep getting treated, well... like the Royals by the oddsmakers. This is a team that has been buried at the bottom of the AL Central for years. But the 2007 version isn't the same ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-31-2007
The Yankees are a very powerful team at home, and have been scoring runs in big chunks, especially vs. mediocre pitching. There is also a history of this team playing some slugfests after the hated Re...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2007
The Tigers were sailing along with a 57-36 record and appeared poised to duplicate what they did last season. Then the wheels fell off. Over the last quarter of the season the Tigers have been one of ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2007
The Rockies have had trouble scoring runs and have put up a pair of single-run performances in the first two games here. They are the best team in baseball against RHP for bettors, as t...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2007
The Mets were 8-2 in Glavine's first 10 starts but have gone just 8-9 in his last 17, while his ERA has risen a full run at the same time. The Mets are just 23-31 vs. teams with a winning record s...
