Baseball Prediction - September 01, 2007

2-2 yesterday for +0.7 units, just barely missing the big score with the NYY/TB OVER. Today, three plays as we'll come back on Tampa Bay again...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Kansas City at Minnesota (12:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kansas City +156 (risk 4 to win 6.2)

The Royals keep getting treated, well... like the Royals by the oddsmakers. This is a team that has been buried at the bottom of the AL Central for years. But the 2007 version isn't the same team. The Royals have been shutout 33 times over the last three years. This year - just six times. They were never good enough to bounce back, as they were 11-22 the game following a shutout. This season they are 4-2 after being shutout, having rewarded their backers when they have been an underdog to the tune of +10 units. The Twins missed their annual second-half run this season, mainly because they just aren't the same team either. The Twins have coughed up -11.3 units to teams in their division, a true indication of how these teams have changed. Carlos Silva is your basic mediocre big-league pitcher. He goes up, he goes down. He pitches well for a few games, followed by pitching poorly for a few games. He is off a recent good run, and has turned down now. The Twins are a putrid 27-36 in his starts over the last two years, not exactly the type of numbers to justify these odds. Brandon Duckworth comes off the DL with his 2.94 ERA and solid numbers to hold the Royals in the game. We look for the Royals to strike again as a live dog.

This is a true "Yankee line." If you pick your spots, there are great times to fade New York when the public can't resist, and this is one of them. We took the value on Tampa Bay yesterday to the bank. We see another, probably better opportunity here. The Yankees, fresh in all the bettors minds, just swept the powerful Red Sox. But a closer look shows this team is not clicking right now. Their line-up has produced just 19 runs in their last six games, good for only 3.2 runs per game. They will start another hyped rookie in Ian Kennedy. This kid was pitching in A-ball this year, and was rushed through the system. The Yankees have been forced to use a rookie pitcher 42 times already this season to start a game, and the results have been poor. The Yankees are 2-22 in games started by rookies, good for -10.6 units to their backers. They are -235 here? Way overpriced! Tampa Bay comes in as the hottest team in the entire AL. They have now won four straight and seven out of eight. The D-Ray offense has been on fire. They have scored 74 runs in their last eight games (over 9 per game). And the pitching staff has picked it up as well, as the Rays have allowed just 33 runs in the eight games. Edwin Jackson has come of age. Jackson was 0-8 with an 8.20 ERA in mid-June, but has since gone 4-4 with a 3.64 ERA covering 77 innings, allowing less hits than innings pitched. The Yankees have allowed an average of 5.5 runs a game when a rookie starts. They are facing a pitcher who has turned the corner, and a team that has been explosively hot. The Yankees are cold offensively too and they are likely still facing a bit of a Red Sox hangover. Tons of value in this big dog.

The Nationals have really hit the skids. They have now dropped seven straight. When you get to this stage of the season with nothing to play for, and the team is losing, it is hard to go to the ballpark. The flip side of this is the Giants. The Giants are now 12-3 over their last 15, and nothing is more energizing to a team going nowhere than a bunch of wins. Joel Hanrahan got torched for 9 runs and 8 hits, lasting just 2.2 innings in his last outing - hardly a streak stopper. The Nats, after a good run, have now sunk 19 games under .500 - their lowpoint of the season. The Nats are a major league baseball's worst 12-30 in game two of a series as well. Jonathan Sanchez was sent down to AAA Fresno to work on being a starter and compiled a 2.18 ERA while there, so he appears ready to fit his new role. We like the streaking Giants as a dog in this one.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our 2007 baseball betting preivew here.
• Read our sportsbook reviews baseball here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB ATS standings here.
• Check out our updated Baseball odds lines and spreads.
• Hop over to our baseball picks here.
• Here we show our Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Take a look at our how to bet baseball here.
• View our 2007 baseball prior picks season results here.
• Hop over to our blog baseball here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-31-2007
The Yankees are a very powerful team at home, and have been scoring runs in big chunks, especially vs. mediocre pitching. There is also a history of this team playing some slugfests after the hated Re...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-30-2007
The Tigers were sailing along with a 57-36 record and appeared poised to duplicate what they did last season. Then the wheels fell off. Over the last quarter of the season the Tigers have been one of ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-29-2007
The Rockies have had trouble scoring runs and have put up a pair of single-run performances in the first two games here. They are the best team in baseball against RHP for bettors, as t...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-28-2007
The Mets were 8-2 in Glavine's first 10 starts but have gone just 8-9 in his last 17, while his ERA has risen a full run at the same time. The Mets are just 23-31 vs. teams with a winning record s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-August-27-2007
Not sure if there is a team in baseball worse than the White Sox right now. They are just 2-13 in their last 15 games. We are also not sure if there is a worse pitcher in baseball right now than Jose ...