darrell,

After a great run the past week and a half, we took a step backwards last night going 1-2. Three picks tonight.

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Game: Seattle at Tampa Bay (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1 star on Seattle +100 (risk 100 to win 100)

Which Gil Meche will show up here? He started out 9-4 but has posted four straight losses. Considering that Tampa Bay socres 4.7 per game at home and just 4.1 vs. right handers, I think the winning Meche will. If he does struggle, I like Seattle's bullpen a lot (3.39 road ERA). Tampa Bay starts James Shields who has been solid at home but s backed up by a bullpen with a 5.93 ERA. Seattle is hot right now having won six of seven while Tampa Bay has lost six of seven. Backing the hot team in this one.

The Pirates come off a three game sweep of the Cubs at home. They put up 11, 7 and 10 runs. Well, tonight's going to look a little different. They go on the road to face the Cardinals and Chris Carpenter. Carpenter is 12-6 on the season witha 2.96 ERA. At home it's 1.66. Pittsburgh has the absolute worst road record in the Majors (17-48). When you are looking up Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Kansas City in any statistic, that's bad. Carpenter is 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA vs. the Pirates and he's 23-4 the past two seasons vs. weak teams that are outscored by 0.5+ runs per game. Pittsburgh is 1-14 this year on the road vs. good bullpens (1.350 or better WHIP). Zach Duke goes for Pittsburgh and with him starting, the Pirates are 1-13 on teh road and 0-11 as a road underdog. Big line but too much going for St. Louis to ignore here.

I like Texas here as they are 5-1 in the last six games played here and 13-5 vs. Cleveland overall in the last 18. Jake Westbrook and Vicente Padilla on the surface look very similar with 4.27 and 4.16 ERAs, respectively. But, on the road Westbrook is 5-5 with a 5.88 ERA and at home, Padilla is 7-3 with a 4.52 ERA. Huge bullpen difference here as the Indians' has a 4-17 record and 5.80 ERA on the road while Texas' has a 3.85 ERA at home. This is a big reason why Cleveland is just 26-38 on the road. Texas is 29-7 as a home favorite in this range the last three seasons as they tend to take care of business when they are expected to. Rangers here.