Baseball Predictions - October 28, 2009

We enter the World Series tonight with our best MLB record at 397-347 for +63.4 units on the season. Over the past four and a half months alone our MLB picks are up +94.7 units at 265-215.  We have two premium plays in tonight's opener.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
CFB	4-3 last 7 picks	57%	+$280
MLB	265-215 last 480 picks	55%	+$9470
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NHL	12-6 last 18 picks	67%	+$820
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$28520

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at New York Yankees (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)

The Philadelphia Phillies begin their quest to repeat as baseball's World Champions against the NY Yankees at the Stadium in game one. The Phillies will wheel out Cliff Lee, who has come up big since they acquired him from the Indians, but he will face off against a pitcher that is at the top of his game right now in CC Sabathia. Sabathia has been impossible to beat and aside from a season ending tuneup against Tampa Bay, the Yankees are now 14-0 in his last 14 starts and the last 13 have all been quality starts. Sabathia, discounting the meaningless finale against Tampa Bay, has pitched to an 0.74 ERA in his last five starts with opposing hitters batting .165. Lee has been tough in the post-season, but the Yankees lineup has a way of making a starter throw a lot of pitches and making an early exit because of pitch counts. The Yanks have the advantage here in many ways. They have been lights out at home where they have not only gone 5-0 in the playoffs, they have won their last 13 here vs teams with a winning record with the last loss occurring over two months ago. They have the starting pitching edge here, as well as the better pen and closer for game one. I'm going with the Yankees here.

The Yankees have played nine post-season games and have yet to be held under four runs. They have scored 23 in their last three and have averaged 5.3 runs a game. The playoffs are supposed to take away the long ball with the strong pitching, but that hasn't slowed the Bombers who have slugged 14 in the nine games. The Phillies have been similar as they have plated four runs or more in eight of their nine games and have averaged over six runs a game. That makes for two teams that have each reached the four run mark in 17 out of 18 possibilities. The Phillies have matched the Yankees home run total of 14, so combined they have 28 HR's in 18 games and the Stadium has allowed more HR's than any park in baseball. The last 14 starts Sabathia has made with a total of 7-8.5 has seen 11 of the 14 go OVER. The Phillies have also played to an 18-6-2 OVER mark in their last 26. I like this one to go OVER the total.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our 2009 baseball pick results here.
• Read our baseball blog here.
• Read our mlb gambling philosophy here.
• Updated today: MLB prior predictions.
• Read our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View mlb sports book here.
• Here we show our MLB Baseball lines.
• Updated today: mlb baseball predictions.
• Read our mlb against-the-spread records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-22-2009
The Angels have reached the brink as they are now in sudden death with the Yankees. The Yankees are looking like the Bombers of old, getting big hits and more importantly, getting the top of the rotat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-21-2009
The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination as the Phillies have captured a three games to one lead and look to close out the series tonight in Philadelphia. Cole Hamels will get the ball for the Phil...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-20-2009
The Yankees got a healthy dose of what they have been doing to teams all year as they were the victim of a walk-off hit that gave the Angels life in the series now facing a 2-1 deficit instead of 3-0 ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-19-2009
The New York Yankees look like the team that went on to win World Series as opposed to the ones that have been basically one-and-done of late. The difference has been the starting pitching, which for ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-17-2009
The Yankees have had such limited postseason success the past few years, but the change is becoming quite noticeable. The problem was the Yankees’ lack of quality at the top of their rotation an...