Mlb Baseball Pick Online - October 24, 2007
We're 11-6 (65%) in the playoffs for +17 units. On the season we sit at +50.3 units. We open the World Series with a pick in game one...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Colorado at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +205 (risk 3 to win 6.2)
The first thing that needs to be addressed here is the time off that Colorado has had. All the stuffed suits talk about is how much of a momentum disruption it will be, and how it will benefit Boston. While we don't think it necessarily benefits Colorado, we don't think it is a disadvantage at all. Last year Detroit had a week off and came out to beat St. Louis (with one day off) in game one 7-2. The talk was the same, as it is every year, that Detroit would have trouble in game one because of the momentum stopping delay. Two years ago, the same thing happened. The White Sox had to sit around for five days, and the prognosticators said they would lose their edge. They won game one by the score of 5-3, and went on to sweep the series. The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks had six days off before squaring off with the Yankees. They won game one by the score of 9-1. The Yankees in '99 had three more days off than the Braves and went on to beat Atlanta 4-1 in game one. So if anything the extended time off has been an asset, not a liability! The last four times the team that has at least been off for two more days than their opponent has won every game one. It will not be a negative factor in this game, but if the Rockies lose, that is all you'll hear about. We will throw that out and focus on other factors. When not talking about the time-off issue, the talking heads are discussing how Josh Beckett can't possibly be beat. Let's go back to mid June before the Rockies had taken off (they were a losing team). They came to Fenway to face Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett. Beckett was 9-0 at the time and Boston was 10-1 in his 11 starts. Colorado as a +195 dog (almost identical to this line) and crushed Boston 7-1. We will also point out that Francis was the Colorado starter in that one as well, giving up just 1 run. The Rockies also faced Schilling in that series, who was 6-2 coming in and the Sox were 10-3 in his starts. The Rockies put a pasting on him, walking off the field with a 12-2 win. This was when Boston was hot at 41-22 while Colorado was 31-33. Are they a different team now? Yes! Here is a team that has won 21 of 22 and because they have never been here before, they will get no respect. But, all they do is keep winning. The same stuffed suits pronounced Cleveland as the new kid on the block after taking the Yankees out in four games and jumping out to a 3 games to 1 lead over the Sox. OOPS! So now the Red Sox are the talk of the town again. They are unbeatable with Beckett and Schilling, and Colorado is just a mediocre team that caught lightning in a bottle. We disagree. The Sox posted negative units vs. LHP this season, while the Rockies were at the top of the league vs. RHP. The Rockies are 17-1 in their last 18 vs. RHP, but it isn't a recent flash. What top RHP are on their resume this year? They beat Webb twice, Peavy twice, Penny twice, Chris Young twice, Smoltz, Harang, Beckett and Schilling! The Rockies are 29-12 vs. good teams (54-62%) and 17-10 vs. a moneyline of +150 or more. That is ridiculous amazing. You think they can line-up with front-line pitching against them? We do! We do not recall a team that is on a run anything close to 21-1 that posted as a nearly 2 to 1 underdog ever. Put the two letters on that cap (NY) under the same circumstances, and what is this line? Jeff Francis has lined up against frontline pitching all season, and the Rockies are 22-12 when he starts, good for +10.9 units (#2 ranking of all starters in MLB). We like the Rockies who are amazingly still under the radar after winning 21 of 22. So the only place to find value in this one is backing the big dog!
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-20-2007
The Red Sox kept the series alive with a big win in game 4 in Cleveland, and the Sox now have the opportunity to finish the series with potentially two games at Fenway. The Sox will wheel out Curt Sch...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-18-2007
Game one featured this same matchup of Cy Young contenders, and was expected to be a pitching duel between Sabathia and Beckett. It never materialized. We expect this one to be a classic pitchers duel...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-16-2007
This is a no call for us, too many conflicts with both side and total. Here is some info, for those that choose to venture in on this one. Wakefield has been awful against .500+ teams, 77.1 innings, 8...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-15-2007
We have watched these two teams pile up the runs so far in the post-season. The Indians have played six games that have produced 72 runs (12 per game). In the five Red Sox games we have...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-14-2007
Can Colorado be stopped? Right now it looks like the answer is no. While it was offense that was doing it towards the end of the regular season, it's been their pitching in the playoffs. They have...
