Major League Baseball Pick - October 19, 2009

Tonight we feature our MLB 5-unit Playoffs Game of the Year! As the MLB playoffs deepen, we are heating up as we are coming off another win on Saturday, and over the last week we are undefeated in the MLB playoffs for +8 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	38-31 last 69 picks	55%	+$510
MLB	263-208 last 471 picks	56%	+$10920
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NHL	N/A	0%	($0)
WNBA	121-90 last 211 picks	57%	+$5490
TOTAL			+$29380

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on New York Yankees +120 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 6)

The New York Yankees look like the team that went on to win World Series as opposed to the ones that have been basically one-and-done of late. The difference has been the starting pitching, which for once matches favorably against their opponent, and the Yanks have now won five straight. While Anaheim has been a house of horrors for the Yankees over the years, they even exercised that demon, winning two of three their last trip here, sending a loud message to the Angels, that this isn’t yesterday's team. A-Rod has also exercised his postseason demons as he has come up with big hit after big hit. Jered Weaver has not pitched as well in the second half as he did the first, as he went from a 2.60 ERA against winning teams in the first half covering 10 starts, to a 5.71 ERA in the second half against winning teams, and that includes 5.08 at home. The Yankees are now an amazing 70-27 in their last 97 games, for a 72.2% winning percentage and getting them as a dog here can only show value. The Yankees get the call.

When you take a look at this line and add in the exchanges regarding this game on the moneyline, the value is quite apparent. The Yankees are a stunning 70-27 over their last 97 games. When you toss in the five one-run losses in those 97 games, they would be 75-22 to a would-be +1.5 runline, or taking the money 77.3% of the time. During this time, the Yankees were posted as an underdog just 13 times and ended up going 9-4 in those games. One of those losses was by a single run, making them 10-3 during this same stretch to a "true" +1.5 runline, or 76.9%. Either way you look at it, the opportunity is based on a 77% winning outcome which says that there is value on the runline, so the Yanks get the nod on the runline.

The Phillies made the best move of all payoffs teams when they acquired Cliff Lee from the Indians and after his whitewash of the Dodgers last night, the dividends continue to be paid. It is a move they made last year, when they acquired Joe Blanton that might put the finishing touch on the Dodgers - already down 2-1 in the series. Blanton doesn't stand out like Lee does, but when you look at his numbers vs. winning teams, in the money games he has delivered. Blanton, in his last 14 starts against winning teams, has allowed a total of 25 runs, or 1.79 per game. He has allowed two or less in 11 of his last 14 starts against a winning team. The Dodgers’ bats have gone silent and Blanton is pitching well. In addition, LA has to continue playing at night in cold Philadelphia which doesn't offer prospects for things to improve. The Dodgers are just 3-7 in their last 10 road playoff games, and 1-5 with a total of 8.5 or less. If you’re worried about the long layoff for Blanton, the Phillies are 6-1 when he has pitched on 7+ days rest. The Dodgers are also just 2-8 in their last 10 in Philly. I like the Phillies in this one.

The numbers the Phillies have been putting up in the postseason at home speak for themselves. They are now 9-1 in their last 10 home playoff games. They have only allowed 20 runs in the 10 wins while plating 54 themselves, taking each game by an average of 3.4 runs per game. The Dodgers have not had success here, dropping all three over the last two seasons. Overall they have won just two of the last 10 in Philly. I'll back the Phillies on the runline here.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our 2009 baseball picks here.
• Read our blog mlb picks here.
• Here we show our betting mlb baseball.
• Don't forget to read our MLB prior predictions here.
• Updated today: MLB Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• Here we show our baseball sports book.
• Take a look at our MLB Baseball odds lines and spreads here.
• Here we show our baseball free picks.
• View MLB ATS records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-17-2009
The Yankees have had such limited postseason success the past few years, but the change is becoming quite noticeable. The problem was the Yankees’ lack of quality at the top of their rotation an...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-15-2009
There is definitely an added edge here with Hamels having a lot of winning experience for the Phillies in the postseason. He has also truly delivered vs. this Dodgers team as the Phillies have won fou...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-11-2009
The Red Sox have really struggled to get hits in the first two games of this series (eight total). I like them to return to form at least today to avoid the dreaded sweep. Don't forget that Boston...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-10-2009
The Colorado Rockies head home after getting the game they wanted and erasing the Phillies home-field advantage. The series is now a best of three with the next two in Colorado. Jason Hammel began the...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-09-2009
The Yankees came from behind to take the opener from the Twins and hold a 1-0 lead coming into game two. The oddsmakers are really making you pay a huge price if you like the Yankees and the pendulum ...