Mlb Baseball Pick Online - October 15, 2007
We won with the under in last night's D-Backs/Rockies game. In the playoffs, we're hitting 69% for +18.8 units. Tonight we like plays on the total in both games...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Boston at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -115 (risk 4 to win 3.5)
We have watched these two teams pile up the runs so far in the post-season. The Indians have played six games that have produced 72 runs (12 per game). In the five Red Sox games we have seen 55 total runs (11 per game). Tonight we get away from the top of the rotations, where you'd expect even more. But we have a different opinion. The Red Sox have played 18 road games against .500+ teams, without the top of the rotation on the mound (Beckett or Schilling). They are 5-13 in these games, producing just 4 runs per game. In 10 of those 18 games, less than 10 total runs were scored. The Indians have played 17 home games vs .500+ teams without the top of the rotation on the mound (Sabathia or Carmona). They have gone 7-11 in those games. In 11 of 18, less than 10 runs were scored. Jake Westbrook has made 14 home starts, and in 11 of the 14 (78.6%), less than 10 runs were scored. Diasuke Matsusaka has made 18 road starts. In 11 of the 18, less than 10 runs were scored. And, in 7 of 10 vs .500+ teams, less than 10 runs were scored. It must be remebered that both these teams are backed by top bullpens, so if and when the starter gets in trouble, they are bringing in a competent replacement. Boston as a team has been 28-14 to the UNDER this season on the road when matched against a .500+ opponent. They are also 35-18 UNDER on the road vs. a RHP. The Red Sox are 12-3 UNDER this season on the road following a big loss (by 6+ runs). In games with Westbrook starting, the Indians are 17-8 UNDER including 11-3 UNDER at home. Finally, we have a playoff tested totals system that is live for this game. It has won at a rate of 71%, and covers well over 100 games in the system. It calls for the UNDER, as we do as well.
Game: Arizona at Colorado (10:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
As we stated yesterday, Colorado keeps on winning - but the way they are winning has changed dramatically since the start of the playoffs. Their great run at the end of the regular season saw them scoring like crazy. They won 14 of 15 to end the season. In those 15 games, they scored 6+ runs 10 times! In the postseason they have won six straight. They have scored 6+ just once. In the other five games, the total runs per game average has been 5.0. As they go for win #21 out of 22, we expect more of the same. A win ties them with the 1976 Reds in winning seven straight to start the postseason. Arizona has scored just 4 runs in this series - total! Micah Owings has allowed jus two earned runs in his last three starts (18 innings). After last night's game, the D-Backs are now 17-4 UNDER this year vs. teams that bat .275 or better. They are also an amazing 40-8 UNDER this season on the road with a posted total between 8.5 to 10.
Results: 1-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-14-2007
Can Colorado be stopped? Right now it looks like the answer is no. While it was offense that was doing it towards the end of the regular season, it's been their pitching in the playoffs. They have...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-12-2007
This is what the MLB postseason is all about. We have the two teams that tied for the most wins squaring off in the ALCS at Fenway. The weather has finally turned to spring in the Northeast, and tempe...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-11-2007
The Colarado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks open the NLCS tonight, and at the beginning of the season, neither were likely candidates to be here. The Rockies used a late season surge that has ri...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-08-2007
The Yankees offense needed two things in this series. The first was to get home, where they have scored over 7 runs per game in the second half of the season. The second was to get a sh...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-07-2007
We have watched Cleveland roll over the Yankees in the first two here. The Yankee bats have been asleep hitting just .121 in the first two games. Things will be different in this one. The Yankees are ...
