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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
October 14, 2006

darrell,

Split the picks yesterday for a tiny loss. Three picks today.

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Good luck today...

The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Note: risk 1% of bankroll per unit. Never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any single pick.

Game: Oakland at Detroit (4:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on UNDER 7.5 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The first game in this series netted 6 runs. The second ballooned to 13 and last game 3 were scored. Two UNDERs and an OVER. I think we make it 3 UNDERs tonight. This is a very low posted total but for good reason. Dan Haren tries to help the A's avoid the sweep. He last pitched against Minnesota giving up two runs on way to a victory. Jeremy Bonderman will try to clinch it for the Tigers. He's off a gem against the Yankees in which he allowed two runs in 8.3 innings. The Tigers are allowing just 2.9 runs per game so far in the playoffs and Oakland is scoring just 3.7. Games with teams off 3+ straight losses in October have gone UNDER 68% of the time over the past decade. With Bonderman on the mound, Detroit is 14-4 UNDER the past three seasons vs. teams hitting .260 or less. UNDER here.


Game: New York Mets at St. Louis (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on St. Louis -124 (risk 3 to win 2.42)
Pick: 3 units on UNDER 9.5 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Cards offense finally exploded last night allowing them to tie up the series. Now they go to St. Louis where the Cardinals have won 8 of the last 10 in this matchup. I don't expect that kind of offense again as it was a bit fluky. So Taguchi knocked in 3 runs late last night with a home run. His second of the postseason but just the 16th of his career. He had hit just 2 all regular season. Jeff Suppan took a loss against San Diego but should get the win here. He's 7-3 at home with a 3.29 ERA. He's opposed by Steve Trachsel who is 8-3 on the road with a 4.39 ERA. With Suppan on the mound, the Cardinals are 5-1 vs. the Mets. With Tachsel pitching, the Mets are just 6-12 vs. St. Louis. Six of the last nine games in this series played here in St. Louis have gone UNDER the total including 2 of 3 this season. The Mets are allowing just 4.0 runs per game in the playoffs and the Cardinals are allowing only 2.3. Last night's score has pushed this total up above where it should be. LCS games with a total of 9-9.5 are 40-10 UNDER (80%) over the past ten years! Go UNDER and on the Cardinals here.


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How much to bet? I recommend that you risk between 2% and 5% of your bankroll on each game (1-star = 2%, 2-star = 2.5%, 3-star = 3%, 4-star = 4% and 5-star = 5% of bankroll). It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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