MLB Baseball
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October 13, 2006 |
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darrell,
2-0 last night as the game played out perfectly. Four picks today...
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Good
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Note: risk 1% of bankroll per unit. Never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any single pick.
Game: Oakland at Detroit (4:35 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Oakland +118 (risk 3 to win 3.54) Pick: 3 units on UNDER 8.5 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Detroit has a comfortable 2-0 lead heading home. They may let down ever so slightly here while Oakland cannot afford to do anything but leave it all on the field. They go with the often injured Rich Harden. He said "my elbow feels good right now. I had a lot of time to build up strength and get some confidence back." Harden hasn't lost a game this season and the A's are 10-0 with him starting this season. Kenny Rogers goes for the Tigers and he's been great all season. But, he has a history of cracking in the playoffs. Before his win over the Yankees, he was 0-3 with an 8.85 ERA in his nine prior playoff appearances. Has he turned it all around? I am not so sure as one game doesn't erase that streak. Oakland is 23-13 this season after losing two straight to an opponent. I think Oakland fights hard here and gets the win. Detroit is 22-7 UNDER this season vs. good pitchers with a WHIP of 1.300 or lower this season and they are 31-18 UNDER with a total of 7 to 8.5. Kenny Rogers is 12-3 UNDER at home this season with a total of 8.5 to 10. Low scoring game with the A's coming out on top.
Game: St. Louis at New York Mets (8:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on St. Louis -119 (risk 3 to win 2.52) Pick: 3 units on UNDER 7.5 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Chris Carpenter takes to the mound to try to even the series. He's 17-8 on the seasno with a 3.03 ERA and took care of business against San Diego going 2-0 allowing 3 runs in 13.3 innings. John Maine is just 6-5 on the season (4-4 at home). He pitched well against the Dodgers on October 4th but he went just 4.3 innings. He admitted he was very nervous in that game and I expect that again today. New York is getting a lot of respect here due to their recent run of 8 straight wins. But, this is Chris Carpenter. He's 50-19 the past two seasons. I think he pitches great and New York has trouble scoring. St. Louis isn't going to score a lot either. With Carpenter on the mound, the Cards are 13-4 UNDER this season vs. teams scoring 4.8+ runs per game. I expect a very low scoring affair with the Cards eeking out a win.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend that you risk between 2% and 5% of your bankroll on each game (1-star = 2%, 2-star = 2.5%, 3-star = 3%, 4-star = 4% and 5-star = 5% of bankroll). It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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