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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
October 12, 2006

darrell,

Rainout game from yesterday - same picks...

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The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Game: St. Louis at New York Mets (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Mets -169 (risk 2 to win 1.18)
Pick: 2 units on UNDER 9 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

Tom Glavine is 40 years old but should still be feared by the St. Louis Cardinals. Glavine has won two Cy Young Awards and he is no stranger to the postseason. This is his 16th Championship Series start. This season he posted a 15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA and he didn't allow a run in six innings on Thursday vs. the Dodgers. At home this year, Glavine is 9-3 with a 2.71 ERA. Jeff Weaver, on the other hand, is 9-14 on the year. The Mets haven't lost to LA here this season and the Cards are 2-13 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year. Glavine is 12-2 this season vs. winning teams. St. Louis isn't scoring a lot of late. They have managed just 3.5 runs per game in the playoffs. They generally score less vs. lefties so I expect very few runs from them off Glavine. The Mets have allowed just 2.9 runs per game over their past seven. Versus high scoring teams (4.8+ runs per game), Glavine is 8-0 UNDER at home the past two seasons. In the LCS, games with totals in this range go UNDER the total at about a 73% clip. Mets and the UNDER here.


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How much to bet? I recommend that you risk between 2% and 5% of your bankroll on each game (1-star = 2%, 2-star = 2.5%, 3-star = 3%, 4-star = 4% and 5-star = 5% of bankroll). It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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