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Free Mlb Picks - October 11, 2009After the cancelled game yesterday, we're back with picks in all three games today...
 Today's MLB Baseball Picks: The Red Sox have really struggled to get hits in the first two games of this series (eight total). I like them to return to form at least today to avoid the dreaded sweep. Don't forget that Boston was down two games to Tampa Bay last year and went on to force a seventh game. This team still remembers the historic comeback vs. the Yankees on way to their World Series championship and it won't allow them to just quit. The Red Sox are just 39-44 on the road but at home here, they are 56-25 - a massive swing. Scott Kazmir is tough, but this Boston team hits everyone at home. They average around 5.0 runs per game on the road but get nearly six per game here at home. The Red Sox are 17-4 this season at home vs. AL teams with an OBP of .345 or higher. Over the past two seasons, they are 30-9 here after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game. And, with an extra day of rest, they are 14-2 at home this season. I like Boston here. I also like the UNDER. Kazmir as we know is very good. Buchholz has been mediocre this season but Los Angeles' bats actually haven't been doing too much of late. They are averaging just 4.5 runs in the palyoffs and 4.4 runs per game over their last seven overall. Kazmir over the past two seasons is 22-11 UNDER when facing a winning team. He's also 10-1 UNDER over the same span when facing good power teams (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). In his last 17 starts he's 13-4 UNDER. Boston meanwhile is 25-13 UNDER vs. teams at .540 to .620 this season. Take the Sox and the UNDER.Game: New York Yankees at Minnesota (7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8) The fix is in. The powers that be want the Yankees to win this year. How else can you explain that foul ball call last game that handed New York the win? Well, maybe that's a bit too conspiracy theory. Maybe it's just Minnesota trying to lose. An amazingly stupid base-running blunder and 17 stranded runners didn't help their cause. They out-played the Yankees, racking up 12 hits to 17, but still found a way to lose. In the end, the value remains on Minnesota who is getting great underdog odds yet again. The Twins are back home and can exact some revenge with a win tonight. It would be especially sweet for Carl Pavano who was an outcast in New York but has fit in nicely in Minnesota. This line is again way off thanks to the mystique of the Yankees. The reality of the situation here is that we have a home team who has outplayed the visitor. The home team finished the regular season on a 17-4 run and they are in a must-win situation here. Andy Pettite is the better pitcher, but not by much. Should New York be favored here? Probably. But certainly not by this much. Carl Pavano is 19-4 this season vs. teams with a winning record and over his career, he has amassed a 20-9 mark vs. good power teams (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). He'll bring a focused, top effort here. I like the Twins.Game: New York Yankees at Minnesota (7:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Minnesota +1.5 runs -110 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.6) We get basically even odds here on a +1.5 run line play on the Twins. Given the fact that this series should probably be even, and Minnesota has been playing great baseball for a month now (better than New York), these odds are great. At home, the Twins average 5.3 runs per game - nearly equal with the Yankees. Over the past two seasons, they are 29-11 vs. the runline as a home underdog! Carl Pavano is 24-8 vs. the runline as a home underdog in his career. I like Minnesota on the runline here.Game: Philadelphia at Colorado (10:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Colorado +100 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4) Snow and freezing temperatures have moved this game out a day. But given the late scheduling time, it's still going to be very cold (around 40 degrees). The Rockies head home after getting the game they wanted and erasing the Phillies home-field advantage. The series is now a best of three with the next two in Colorado. The Phils switched from Pedro Martinez to J.A. Happ while Colorado is sticking with Jason Hammel. Hammel began the season in the pen and struggled in his transition to becoming a starter as the Rockies dropped four of his first five starts. The Rockies have since gone 17-9 in his last 26 starts and that includes a stellar 10-2 mark at home. The Rockies are 23-13 this season when playing teams at .540 to .620 and they are 55-36 following a win. They also have a winning record this season as an underdog and over the past three seasons the Rockies are 27-18 as a home underdog. I like Colorado and Hammel here.Game: Philadelphia at Colorado (10:05 PM Eastern) Pick: 4 units on Colorado +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.4) The Rockies have been the best team in baseball over the last two thirds of the season and at home they have been especially tough going 26-9 in their last 35 games. They also have Jason Hammel on the mound who has been their best pitcher at home, leading the Rockies to a 10-2 mark in his last 12 home starts. The Phillies are just 53-66 this year vs. the runline when facing a RHP. They are also 5-17 vs. the runline revenging a one-run loss. Meanwhile, Colorado is 18-11 at home vs. LHP. I like Colorado on the runline here. Results: 1-5 MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters: MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-10-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-09-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-08-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-07-2009 MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-04-2009 |
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