MLB Baseball
Premium Edition |
October 11, 2006 |
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darrell,
Three picks tonight in what I expect to be two low-scoring games...
| WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS) |
| SPORT | WINS-LOSSES | % | UNITS | | NFL |
17-7 last 24 picks |
71% | +10 |
| CFB |
18-12 last 30 picks |
60% | +6 |
| MLB |
48-28 last 76 picks |
63% | +4.6 |
| NHL |
208-140 last season |
60% | +24.6 |
| CBB |
174-128 last season |
58% | +46 |
| NBA |
207-197 last season |
51% | +10 |
| TOTAL | | | +101.2 |
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Wunderdog Picks Results
Check out my 12-month performance here. |
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Good
luck today...
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Game: St. Louis at New York Mets (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on New York Mets -169 (risk 2.5 units to win 1.48 units)
Pick: 2 stars on UNDER 9 (risk 2.5 units to win 2.3 units)
Tom Glavine is 40 years old but should still be feared by the St. Louis Cardinals. Glavine has won two Cy Young Awards and he is no stranger to the postseason. This is his 16th Championship Series start. This season he posted a 15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA and he didn't allow a run in six innings on Thursday vs. the Dodgers. At home this year, Glavine is 9-3 with a 2.71 ERA. Jeff Weaver, on the other hand, is 9-14 on the year. The Mets haven't lost to LA here this season and the Cards are 2-13 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this year. Glavine is 12-2 this season vs. winning teams. St. Louis isn't scoring a lot of late. They have managed just 3.5 runs per game in the playoffs. They generally score less vs. lefties so I expect very few runs from them off Glavine. The Mets have allowed just 2.9 runs per game over their past seven. Versus high scoring teams (4.8+ runs per game), Glavine is 8-0 UNDER at home the past two seasons. In the LCS, games with totals in this range go UNDER the total at about a 73% clip. Mets and the UNDER here.
Game: Detroit at Oakland (8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on UNDER 8.5 (risk 2.5 units to win 2.3 units)
Detroit is allowing 3.0 runs per game in the playoffs. Oakland is also allowing 3.0 per game and scoring just 4.2 per contest. Esteban Loaiza (3.71 home ERA) should be able to keep the Tigers from exploding offensively. Detroit is in fact 38-17 UNDER this season as an underdog and 28-15 UNDER with a posted total of 8 to 8.5. Over the past two seasons, Loaiza is 22-1 UNDER with a total of 8.5 to 10. And, he's 10-1 UNDER vs. winning teams this season! The Tigers won by 4 last night. They are 26-17 UNDER this season after a win by 4 or more runs while Oakland is 33-17 UNDER off a loss by 4+ runs the past two seasons. UNDER here.
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| How
much to bet? I recommend that you risk between 2% and 5% of your bankroll on each game (1-star = 2%, 2-star = 2.5%, 3-star = 3%, 4-star = 4% and 5-star = 5% of bankroll). It is strongly recommended that
you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given
game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks.
Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another
day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily
over the long-term. For more, see
my write-up on Bankroll
Management. |
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