Mlb Pick - October 07, 2009

We put the wraps on our best MLB regular season ever as we saw an 84% bankroll growth over the course of the season (see graph below). We finished the MLB regular season at 387-327 for +92.6 units. Tonight, we enter the MLB playoffs on a roll as over the last three and a half months, we are 255-195 for +124 units.

We kickoff the '09 MLB playoffs with three premium picks including a 4-unit play.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at New York Yankees (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Minnesota +320 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 6.4)

Everyone, including the oddsmakers, is playing the "fatigue" angle here on the Twins. Let's be real, these are kids in their 20s and 30s and trust me, they won't be tired. They will be juiced to be at The Stadium with a chance to knock off the Yankees, and they have been a red-hot confident team. Sabathia is not a layup by any means. His post-season pedigree is shaded with question marks. He has pitched in each of the last two post-seasons to a 9.47 ERA, covering 19 innings. The Twins may not be the better team here, but they are by no means over a 3-1 underdog in a playoffs game - severe overlay to the Yankees. I'm going with Minnesota here.

The Cardinals open their NL Division series on the road in Los Angeles. The Dodgers were quick out of the gate this season, especially at home where they won their first 13 games, but finished the season just 37-31 at home thereafter. This exact matchup took place in St. Louis with the Cards’ Chris Carpenter besting Randy Wolf 6-1. Carpenter has owned the Dodgers with a 0.96 ERA against them over the past five years. Also, St. Louis took five of seven this season from the NL West Champs. It’s hard to pass on a pitcher with those credentials against the Dodgers. Add in the fact that the Cards are 92-38 in Carpenter's last 130 starts, and I'll back the Cards to win the opener.

Behind Carpenter, the Cardinals are always worth a shot on the runline because you can be pretty sure he is going to shut a team down. That is exactly what he has done all year. Over his career, he has really stymied this Dodgers’ offense with a 0.96 ERA in the last five years against them. Couples that with a team that has gone 92-38 with him on the mound and you have a good prospect of winning here. The Dodgers were 13-0 at home, but just 37-31 since, so they certainly can be had here, and Carpenter has already bested Wolf 6-1 this season. I'm going Cards on the runline.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated 2009 MLB prior pick season results.
• View blog baseball picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our Baseball handicapping philosophy.
• Take a look at our MLB prior predictions here.
• View our Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out sportsbook reviews baseball here.
• Take a look at our MLB odds and lines here.
• Take a look at our baseball pick here.
• View MLB ATS standings here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-04-2009
It's been a season to forget for the New York Mets. Injuries have riddled them all season and it's not getting any better even at the end. Carlos Beltran and David Wright may not be available ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-03-2009
These teams thought at the beginning of the season that they would be playing into October, but it never materialized for either. The Diamondbacks lost interest a longtime ago, and that lack of intere...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-02-2009
The Blue Jays and Orioles will square of in each team's final series of the season, and it can't come fast enough for either team. There will be a lot of rookies getting looks here, so despite...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-01-2009
The Pirates’ sweep yesterday has taken some of the air out of this line. But that was one day, and the old saying, "One day does not a season make" certainly applies to the Pirates. Th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2009
This Met team is really in a funk. They had high expectations, but injuries, attitude, and lack of team chemistry has done them in. They have been no-shows on the road, and last night blew a 3-0 lead....