Free Mlb Pick - October 07, 2007
We finished with another 2-0 sweep yesterday for our fourth consecutive postseason winning day. Yesterday's sweep pushed our playoff record to 7-1 good for +23 units.
One play today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Cleveland at New York Yankees (6:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
We have watched Cleveland roll over the Yankees in the first two here. The Yankee bats have been asleep hitting just .121 in the first two games. Things will be different in this one. The Yankees are built to feast on the pitching of weak teams and the secondary pitching of good teams, especially at the Stadium. The Yankees have produced 248 runs in their last 31 home games, good for 7.48-runs per game (RPG). They have also allowed 146 runs or 4.70-rpg. That means since July 21, or just after the All-Star break they have played in 31 games at the Stadium that have produced 378 runs or 12.19 a game. That is 2.69 runs above the posted total here. They also played three games here against Cleveland, and the series produced 13, 11 and 14 runs. Yes, the Bronx Bombers did nothing in Cleveland, but neither has anyone else against the likes of Carmona and Sabathia. How much of a factor are those two pitchers? The Indians are 45-22 when they start a game, and in those 67 games the opponent has scored 237 runs or 3.54 a game. The Indians have played 97 games when they don't start, and have allowed 471 runs or 4.86 runs a game. That is a 1.32 run per game difference, so the overall stats of this team are highly biased by two front-line pitchers. Jake Westbrook could not get out of the second inning at Yankee Stadium in his lone start this season against the Yankees, and he was torched for eight runs. Throughout his career he has allowed left-handed hitters a higher batting average vs. their right-handed counterparts, and they hit .290 this season, the highest in four years, and the Yankees are almost a completely left-handed lineup. Yankee Stadium has been unkind to Westbrook. He has been 0-2 there over the last two years, working just 7.2 innings, 14 hits, 13 earned runs, eight walks and an ERA of 15.25. Roger Clemens has not been on the mound in over two weeks. The scouting report says he is injured and it shows up in his delivery. He is a gamer though, and a fierce competitor and will go out there on guts and desire. Not sure if that is good enough at age 45, and a potent lineup to face. We feel both teams have the situational capacity to topple this total individually. A final note here: In those 31 games played at the Stadium since July 21st, the Yankees have seen 10 or more runs scored in 20 of the 31. When games have been started by someone other than Pettitte or Wang, the total has reached 10 or more in 16 of 19 or 84% of the time. The value is on the OVER here.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-06-2007
The Cubs face elimination at home today, as they have fallen down 2-0 in this five-game series. The Cubs have not been home since September 23, and will need a big performance from Rich Hill to stay a...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-05-2007
The New York Yankees were once upon a time, the post season darlings. And although they have still been able to find their way into the post season, winning has become quite the chore. There is a vali...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-04-2007
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire seas...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-03-2007
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2007
The Cubs have been 13-5 in Ted Lilly's last 18 starts, and the Reds are the worst team in baseball against LHP, posting a 23-37 mark while eating up 12.40 units for their backers on the season. Th...
