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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
October 07, 2006

darrell,

We've had a rough start to the MLB playoffs but look to turn it around today with two picks...

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The Wunderdog


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Game: New York Yankees at Detroit (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Detroit +117 (risk 200 to win 234)

Many predicted a New York sweep of this series and after an 8-4 opening game win, they were in control. But the resilient Detroit Tigers have stormed back to take a 2-1 lead and look for the improbable win here. They have shut down a potent Yankees offense as New York hasn't scored a run or even advanced a runner in the last 14 innings. It won't get a lot easier for the Yankees as they face Jeremy Bonderman who has pitched well of late (6 earned runs allowed over his last 16.3 innings pitched). New York has dropped 9 of their last 11 postseason games. Detroit is 61-35 this season after a win and 40-19 following 2+ straight wins. Home teams have won 21 of 31 when Umpire Paul Emmel is behind the plate (61-39 over past three seasons), giving Detroit another small edge in what appears to be a tough game to call. Detroit here.


Game: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Los Angeles Dodgers -135 (risk 300 to win 222)

The Mets have shrugged off the loss of El Duque and Pedro and look for the sweep today. But, I don't think they get it. Not if Greg Maddux has anything to say about it. Sure LA is without Nomar but I think they hit Steve Traschel. He's got a 5.40 ERA in his 13 starts since the All-Star break. And, he's just 14-37 in his career in late-season play when on the road facing a team that scores 4.8+ runs per game. Maddux on the other hand has posted a 6-3 mark and 3.30 ERA in his 12 starts with the Dodgers. He's 17-6 this season vs. teams scoring 4.8+ runs per game. Traschel is 3-7 vs. the Dodgers while Maddux is 17-7 vs. the Mets. Los Angeles is a much better home team than road team and I like them to get the win here.


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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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