Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - October 06, 2007
We have had three winning days out of three in the Fall Classic, 2-0 yesterday with 2 dog winners, to run our postseason mark to 5-1.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -104 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
The Cubs face elimination at home today, as they have fallen down 2-0 in this five-game series. The Cubs have not been home since September 23, and will need a big performance from Rich Hill to stay alive. The side here doesn't offer any value in our estimation, but we do see tremendous value on the total. Livan Hernandez has been a solid playoff pitcher throughout his career, and the scouting report says that for him it is all about command. If he doesn't have it, expect an early exit, if he does expect a gem. A look at some situations that display the value here. The Cubs have been a team that isn't winning with their bats they win with their arms, which is the same for Arizona. The Cubs have managed 4.5 runs a game at home against .500+ teams when they start a RHP against them. The D-Backs are scoring just 3.76-rpg in the same situation, but on the road. It leaves a starting point, in terms of reasonable expectation, that 8.26 runs are expected taking this average, a full 1.3 runs below the posted total. On the road, Arizona has played to a total of from 9 to 10.5 on 29 occasions this season and has played under 21-6-2, or 78% of the time. They have also played under to the tune of 23-9-2 against a team with a winning home record. Today they send Livan Hernandez to the mound, where he has been under 7-0-1 in his last eight road starts with a line of 9 to 10.5, and is 16-5-1 under in his last 22 starts on the road. The Cubs have played under 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against a RHP, and 30-13-1 under overall in their last 44 games. The biggest bat in the Cub lineup is Ramirez, who has hit .395 against LHP, and 109 points less against RHP. The D-Backs do not have a hitter on the roster with more than 34 road RBIs, and feature just 3 hitters .270+. We have teams averaging 8.26 runs a game, in all the similar features presented in this one with both teams in the top seven in pitching with bullpens in the top third of the league as well, and neither team above 18 in runs scored in MLB, with a pretty lofty NL playoff game total. Finally home plate umpire for today's game is Greg Gibson. Gibson's last eight behind the plate in Cubs games resulted in 6-2 in favor of the under, while in his last six D-Back games the result was 4-1-1 under, so collectively his last 14 games involving these teams resulted in 10-3-1 to the under. These teams met three times in Chicago to a combined 16 runs in a three-game series with no game totaling over eight. The teams combined to hit .195 in the series. We also have a playoff system that has posted a 65% winning rate for specific situation unders, and this game applies to that system. We will look for this to be a low scoring game and ride the UNDER.
Game: Philadelphia at Colorado (9:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Colorado -146 (risk 3 to win 2.1)
Two unlikely postseason candidates are matched up for game three, as the venue moves to Coors Field. The Rockies have taken the first two on the road, and will attempt to close the door on the Phillies tonight. This will be the first time since October of '95, Colorado has hosted a playoff game and you can be certain of one thing, the atmosphere will be electric. The Rockies are on a 16-1 tear, and have about as much confidence as a team could possibly have at this point. These teams are both tremendous offensively, but the Rockies far and away own Coors when it comes to offense. They have nine players at .300+, and the middle of the order "H-BOMBS" Helton, Holliday, and Hawpe have combined for a .340 avg. with 53 HRs and 190 RBIs at Coors. Throw in Atkins at .349 10 53, and Tulowitski at .326 15 60, and they are a force. Coors Field has been a chamber of horrors for Jamie Moyer. Moyer has been rocked for 12 runs on 17 hits in 11 innings or a 9.82 ERA, and has never beaten the Rockies. The Phillies are a different team on the road offensively. They feature five players over the coveted .300 mark at home, but just one on the road. The Rockies are 37-14 in their last 51 at Coors Field, which is by far the best mark of any team. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a big part in the late-season surge by the Rockies as he has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts. He was shaky when he was called and over his first five starts, pitched to a 6.57 ERA, but has settled down and pitched to a 3.30 ERA over his last 10. The Rockies also have another huge advantage in this one and that is their bullpen. The Philly pen has coughed up many a game this season, and in this series the No. 24 ranked bullpen has done it again. They have worked 7.2 innings, yielded a .313 avg. against at home, two HRs, and six runs, good for a 7.04 ERA. The Rockies pen is ranked No. 10, and has shutdown the Philly offense on the road. The body of work shows nine innings with just one run allowed! This is significant in this game because Moyer has only worked past six innings once in his last 12 starts and Jimenez has not worked past the seventh all year. One question to ask yourself and you'll see the value here. If this were the Yankees, 16-1 in their last 17, winning two on the road easily, 37-14 at home, better hitting (home for Col. Vs. road for Philly), better bullpen, what would this moneyline be? We can assure you it would be well over -200! That's where this one belongs, so we will ride the value and look for the Rockies to sweep this series.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-05-2007
The New York Yankees were once upon a time, the post season darlings. And although they have still been able to find their way into the post season, winning has become quite the chore. There is a vali...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-04-2007
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire seas...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-03-2007
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2007
The Cubs have been 13-5 in Ted Lilly's last 18 starts, and the Reds are the worst team in baseball against LHP, posting a 23-37 mark while eating up 12.40 units for their backers on the season. Th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2007
The Red Sox seem to be teasing with the idea of winning the division, clinching the best record, and just when you think they have it, they slip. They will send Diasuke Matsusaka to the mound tonight ...
