Mlb Baseball Pick Online - October 05, 2007
Yesterday, we recorded our second winning day in the postseason going 2-0 with two dog winners for +8.6 units pushing our playoff record to 3-1.
Two more plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: New York Yankees at Cleveland (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +113 (risk 3 to win 3.4)
The New York Yankees were once upon a time, the post season darlings. And although they have still been able to find their way into the post season, winning has become quite the chore. There is a valid reason for their post season futility. They used to be able to wheel out No. 1 caliber starters for the first two games and what they had was either equal to the opponent or better. The last several years the Yankees’ No. 1 starters have been less than what the opponent sends to the mound and winning not only has been more difficult it has become sparse. Take a look at the Yankees’ regular season on the road - barely a .500 team. Here is an example of what is happening. They faced Kazmir three times, Beckett twice, Verlander, Lackey, Carmona, Halladay, Bedard, Francis and Haren once each. That represents the top 13 pitchers the Yankees faced on the road this season. They managed to go a dismal 4-9. More than the 4-9 record was the fact they averaged 3.5-runs per game (RPG) in these contests. They were out-scored 84-46! It speaks volumes of just how over priced these Yankees are. If there weren’t pinstripes on the uniforms and an NY on the cap, this line would be dramatically different. Think about it. If the Yankees had the best record in baseball, playing at home where they are now 16-3 in their last 19 (Cleveland's numbers), what would this moneyline be? We would estimate the Yankees would be -160 to -170. So where is the value on this game? Andy Pettitte has had a solid second half, and he is the "name" pitcher in this contest playing for the "name team.” He is however, not the best pitcher in this game. That right was earned by Fausto Carmona. Carmona doesn't have the name, but names don't get you wins it gets you on the wrong side of where the value lies. Carmona has been the best pitcher in baseball in the AL since the All-Star break. He has gone 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA, allowing just 83 hits in 109.1 innings. Pettitte is 11-3, but with a 3.84 ERA, 111 hits in 103 innings. Teams hit .279 against Pettitte and .217 against Carmona. Now let's look at the Yankees in the post-season in the past several years, and serve up the proof of what we talked about earlier, that the Yankees simply don't have the No. 1 starters to win. Since 2002, or the last five post-seasons, and one game in '07, the mighty Yankees are 11-21 as a favorite, bankrupting their backers to the tune of -23.36 units. They are 1-6 as a road favorite and have produced 0, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, and three runs in those seven games. That is 19 runs in seven games or 2.7 per game. Their frontline pitching? They have allowed 6, 8, 2, 5, 5, 4, 5, 8, 6, 5 and 12 runs over their last 11 road post-season games. That is 6-rpg! Those 11 games show just one game where the opponent scored less than four runs. The Yankees haven't scored more than four runs in their last seven on the road. So in a nutshell, we have a team that is hotter in Cleveland (32-12 last 44), against NY (27-17 last 44), a team with a much better pitcher, a team playing at home where they are 16-3 over their last 19, against a team that has been a post-season disgrace and they are an underdog? Win or lose, there is tremendous value here on the Tribe and we will take it!
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Boston -1.5 runs +139 (risk 4 to win 5.6)
The postseason simply arrived at the wrong time for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero is hurting, and has been relegated to the DH role, weakening their outfield defense. Chone Figgins their catalyst at the top of the order is in a 1-26 slump (.038) and their top two pitchers Lackey and Escobar are having problems as well. Their pen has fallen off over the second half to now rank in the bottom third of the league. This is a team that was lethal at home, but very ordinary on the road. They finished the season in a team-wide offensive slump. The Angels have produced just 10 runs over their last six games, and are 36-186 in the process, with a team average of just .194. They have not gotten it done at Fenway the entire season, producing just 22 runs in eight games or 2.75 per game. Kelvim Escobar allowed three runs or less in 17 of his first 23 starts or 74% of the time, but finished very poorly allowing five runs or more in four of his last seven! Like the Yankees, the Angels just don't hit or score against quality pitching on the road. Their last 10 games against a quality starter on the road have produced 21 runs in 10 games or 2.1 runs a game. That spells trouble with Escobar on the mound having pitched to a 7.16 ERA over his last seven starts as he has now walked 13 in his last 23.2 innings, and this is a Sox lineup that takes a lot of pitches and draws a lot of walks. The Sox are here because of their pitching which is the only AL team with a staff ERA under four, and their pen ranks No. 2 in all of baseball at 3.10. Diasuke Matsusaka won 15 games, and perhaps was a bit less spectacular than the Sox thought he would be. The key issue upon his arrival was how would he react to pitching every fifth day instead of once a week? Here is the answer. Early in the season it wasn't a problem, but as the season got into summer, around mid-June you could see it was certainly an issue. From mid-June on when Matsusaka pitched in the regular rotation every fifth day he worked 45.1 innings, 51 hits, 33 earned runs, 39 Ks with an ERA of 6.55. When he worked with extra rest or every sixth day or more, here are his numbers over the same period. He worked 66.2 innings, 51 hits, 23 earned runs, 70 Ks, with an ERA of 3.10. To capsulate, Matsusaka was 3.5 runs better on extra rest, to which he is accustomed instead of six more hits, than innings pitched. He was 16 less and also from less than a strikeout per inning, to more than a strikeout per inning. The bad news for the Angels is he is working on extra rest for this game, and they have not faced him all season, which adds to his potential in this game. The Red Sox have been on fire when winning at Fenway, so if you’re going to take them to win, then the -1.5 makes sense. In their home wins the Red Sox have won by an average margin of 4.12 runs a game, and in their last 28 home wins they have been 24-4 to the -1.5 runline, and outscored the opponent by 4.21 runs a game. Conversely, in their road losses the Angels have gone down by 3.79 runs a game, and have lost 34 of 43 (79.1%), by two runs or more. Sox go up 2-0 in the series with a convincing win in game two.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-04-2007
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire seas...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-03-2007
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2007
The Cubs have been 13-5 in Ted Lilly's last 18 starts, and the Reds are the worst team in baseball against LHP, posting a 23-37 mark while eating up 12.40 units for their backers on the season. Th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2007
The Red Sox seem to be teasing with the idea of winning the division, clinching the best record, and just when you think they have it, they slip. They will send Diasuke Matsusaka to the mound tonight ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2007
The Reds have now lost four straight and send Matt Belisle to the mound. Belisle hasn't exactly been a stopper for the Reds. The Reds have been 3-10 in his last 13 starts following a loss and are ...
