Mlb Predictions - October 04, 2007
Split our two picks yesterday and came out slightly ahead. Two more plays today.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Colorado +135 (risk 3 to win 4.1)
This game is hard to figure out. There is tremendous value on the Rockies here. The Rockies will come into this game with a 15-1 record over their last 16 games, and have dominated RHP the entire season. The Rockies are now 21-4 in their last 25 against RHP and it doesn't end there. The Rockies, playing at hitter friendly Coors Field, have the lowest ERA of any National League team since the All-Star break. They start Franklin Morales today, who didn't allow a run in his only start against the Phillies, and is pitching to a 1.23 ERA in his last four outings, and the Rockies have won his last five starts. The Phillies have done the bulk of their good work against RHP, and have struggled to a sub-.500 record against LHP. Kyle Kendrick has had a good season, but has been torched by the Rockies to the tune of 17 hits in nine innings over two starts, where the Rockies combined to score 19 runs. That is the other problem the Phillies face here. The Phillies bullpen has carried gasoline to the mound of late. Kendrick has pitched less than seven innings in five of his 20 starts. The Philly pen has served up 25 runs in his last five starts. Compare that to the Rockies’ pen that has allowed four in Morales last five starts. This line is completely out of whack, so we will ride the value and play the Rockies.
Game: New York Yankees at Cleveland (6:30 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +115 (risk 4 to win 4.6)
The Yankees left their fans with a lot of doubt as they opened the season with a 22-29 record and limped into the All-Star break under .500. They used an injection of youthful home-grown pitching to turn a nightmare into a success story, and here they are once again playing in October. The Indians stayed near the top of the AL Central the entire year, and rode a streak of their own to wrap up the division. The Yankees stole all the headlines with their amazing run while Cleveland remained under the radar. The Indians actually finished the last quarter of the season four games better than the Yankees. The Yankees were 27-16 in their last 43, while the Tribe was an amazing 31-12 which included finishing 15-3 at home. They were swept by the Yankees six games to none during the regular season, but one thing is different. The Yankees have not seen C.C. Sabathia in three years. The Yankees struggles against pitchers they haven't seen is well documented and this isn't a rookie. Sabathia is a seasoned, high-caliber #1 starter. The Indians won all of Sabathia's final six starts, and he has been murder on left-handed batters allowing only a .203 average against. The Yankees are a left-hand hitting team, and have had no success on the road facing lefthanders. The final tally is just 5-14. Those 19 games featured the Bronx Bombers getting shutout three times. They were shutout just five times in their other 143 games. The Yankees ace, Chien Ming Wang, gets the ball. There is a night and day version of Wang. His first year, 2005, Wang had a 3.55 ERA at the Stadium and 4.65 on the road. Last year he threw 3.03 at the Stadium, and 4.35 on the road. This season he is at 2.75 at home and 4.91 on the road. Notice a pattern? Wang has been lights out at home, but less than average on the road. This season more than two runs worse on the road than at home. For the entire season, the Indians gave up just 3.88 runs per game in Sabathia's starts, which includes the bullpen. That is less than what Wang himself has allowed in any season on the road in pinstripes. Hotter team, better pitcher playing at home with the better matchup as a dog? We'll take it!
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-03-2007
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2007
The Cubs have been 13-5 in Ted Lilly's last 18 starts, and the Reds are the worst team in baseball against LHP, posting a 23-37 mark while eating up 12.40 units for their backers on the season. Th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2007
The Red Sox seem to be teasing with the idea of winning the division, clinching the best record, and just when you think they have it, they slip. They will send Diasuke Matsusaka to the mound tonight ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2007
The Reds have now lost four straight and send Matt Belisle to the mound. Belisle hasn't exactly been a stopper for the Reds. The Reds have been 3-10 in his last 13 starts following a loss and are ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2007
The Rangers have taken the first two in this series, and have now won four of five. They will send Luis Mendoza to the hill to look for the sweep. Mendoza has been very impressive for the Rangers, as ...
