Mlb Pick - October 03, 2009

We hit two of three around the bases yesterday for just over +2 units of profit. Over the last two weeks, we are 31-23 for +15 units and we look to add to that today with four premium picks.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	29-26 last 55 picks	53%	+$200
CFB	11-6 last 17 picks	65%	+$1170
MLB	250-194 last 444 picks	56%	+$11410
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	120-89 last 209 picks	57%	+$5760
TOTAL			+$31000

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -200 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.5)

These teams thought at the beginning of the season that they would be playing into October, but it never materialized for either. The Diamondbacks lost interest a longtime ago, and that lack of interest shows them entering this one with an 8-18 mark in their last 26 games played. They have been horrendous on the road for an equally long stretch coming into this one at 7-20. The Cubs have stayed at the same level as they are 14-10 in their last 24. Lots of teams have given a shot at Daniel Cabrera, but he just leads to disappointment. Here is a very amazing stat. Cabrera has appeared in 14 games for two different teams this season, and the result has been those two teams going 0-14! He pitched six of those in relief, and eight as a starter, so he has been an equal-opportunity loser. The eight starts that Cabrera has made has seen no team score less than six runs, and the average runs scored in the eight he has thrown are a disheartening 8.4 per game. It is tough to even consider a play on the D-Backs here, so the fade is on - I'm backing the Cubs here.

Sometimes there is bad karma surrounding a player and a change of scenery helps. Then sometimes a player is simply not as good as those that give him a chance think he is. Daniel Cabrera is that player. He wore out his welcome in Baltimore last year, finishing the season with the Orioles dropping his last four starts. In Washington, desperate for pitching, gave him a shot, and they couldn't get rid of him fast enough to Arizona. All together he has made 18 appearances for three teams, and the results are about as ugly as it gets. Cabrera has made six relief appearances where all six games saw his team on the losing end. He trumps that with 10 straight starts putting his team in the loss column. Those 10 games saw the opponents score a minimum of five runs, and 99 all together or 9.9 per game! OUCH! The net result is 0-18 the last 18 games he has set foot on the mound. I’m going with the Cubs and the runline here.

The Texas Rangers can finish the season with a winning road record if they win their last two in Seattle. That would be a big boost to this young team that hung in there most of the season. The Mariners have had a much better season after dropping over 100 games a year ago, but Ryan Rowland Smith is not finishing strong allowing eight runs in 12 innings over his last two starts. Texas has been at their best against left-hand pitching, scoring five runs per game and in plus units betting-wise for the year. The Rangers have made good use of Tommy Hunter, added to the rotation mid-season. Hunter has delivered a 9-5 mark. Rowland Smith has not fared well getting his team back on track after a loss, where he has pitched the Mariners to a 4-9 mark in his last 13 starts after a loss. I like the Rangers on the road as a live dog here.

I like the fact that the Rangers are a dog here with the better team and the better pitcher. They at least have something to play for, as a pair of wins will leave them with a road mark of over .500 for the season. I also considered the fact that when this team wins on the road, they win big as they have produced 68 runs in their last seven road wins, and 7.1 in their last 19 covering two months on the road. Streaky offense has run hot and cold, but it is on right now to the tune of 18 runs in the last two games. I'm going with the Rangers here on the runline.

Results: 3-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-02-2009
The Blue Jays and Orioles will square of in each team's final series of the season, and it can't come fast enough for either team. There will be a lot of rookies getting looks here, so despite...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-01-2009
The Pirates’ sweep yesterday has taken some of the air out of this line. But that was one day, and the old saying, "One day does not a season make" certainly applies to the Pirates. Th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2009
This Met team is really in a funk. They had high expectations, but injuries, attitude, and lack of team chemistry has done them in. They have been no-shows on the road, and last night blew a 3-0 lead....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-29-2009
The Tigers sure have been feeling the heat from the Twins’ 11-2 run that has closed the gap in the AL Central to just two games. The Tigers aren't doing themselves any favors at just 8-11 ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2009
The Detroit Tigers have done everything they can to make a race out of the AL Central. They had virtually put away a few weeks ago, but going 8-11 down the stretch has left the door open for a suddenl...