Baseball Predictions - October 03, 2007
After going wire-to-wire with a profitable MLB season (+32.3 units overall), we open the fall classic with two picks today.
Today we also feature two articles on the upcoming MLB Playoffs below.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Colorado at Philadelphia (3:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9 -107 (risk 3 to win 2.8)
The Rockies have been a red-hot team, and the Phillies also closed strong. These teams will both turn to their aces to open the five-game series in Philadelphia today. On the surface, this game looks like offense vs. offense, and an initial thought is that game 1 would be high scoring. If you dig a bit deeper into this game, and understand the makeup of the teams, that thought is not an accurate one. The Rockies are the No. 1 ranked team against RHP in all of baseball, outperforming the line by 26.51 units on the season. The Phillies are the No. 3 team in baseball against RHP, as they have rewarded their backers with 12.45 units. Things change dramatically for both of these teams against LHP. The Rockies are 67-49 against righties, but sink to a sub-.500 21-24 against southpaws. The Phillies are no different, as they have gone 62-47 against RHP, but are a mediocre 26-26 against port-siders. Both of these teams have offenses geared to destroy what they see most often and that is RHP, but the strength is turned into a weakness against LHP. Cole Hamels has made 12 home starts, and 8 of the 12 have produced nine runs or less. Francis has had 11 of his last 14 starts finish at nine runs or less, so that is 19 of 26 that don't top this total or 73.1%. These teams have not seen post-season recently, so there may be a bit of pressing early on. This game also fits nicely into a system we have developed for playoff totals that has produced 65% winners in a situation that presents itself here. We will ride the UNDER in this game one in Philly.
Game: Chicago at Arizona (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 7.5 -105 (risk 2 to win 1.9)
The Arizona Diamondbacks will host game one tonight against the Chicago Cubs. The D-Backs were outscored on the season, finished dead last in team batting average yet here they are. The Cubs have not hung a banner in nearly a century, so they will have an opportunity to finally get it done. Brandon Webb put on a performance this season that was extraordinary. He pitched 42 consecutive scoreless innings, and three complete game shutouts in the process. The three complete games may be the issue here, as Webb pitched just one other complete game all season. He has been very ordinary since then and since the streak. He has followed by pitching 51.2 innings and has a 4.35 ERA. Webb did not complete one single game in 2005, and in last season's Cy Young campaign, he pitched consecutive complete games, had 25 straight scoreless innings over three starts, and followed by working 33.2 innings and a 5.08 ERA. He also pitched two consecutive complete games late in the season, and followed with 19 innings over three starts and a 5.21 ERA. It certainly appears that the extra innings have worked against Webb, throughout his career. His counterpart, Carlos Zambrano, has had a strange year. The Cubs were 4-6 in his first 10 starts, followed by 10-3. They then went 0-6, followed by 4-1. He will face a D-Backs lineup that is much better at home, hitting close to .270 and scoring almost a run a game more. Zambrano may be uncomfortable, as he has not toed the rubber in Arizona for nearly three years, and he has displayed streaks of wildness, as he has walked over 100 batters on the season. Arizona also likes to run, and have been successful 82% of the time. The D-Backs also like to play little ball, with 58 sacrifices on the season. We also have an eight-year trend that fits this game situation that has produced OVER in 67% of the time since 1999. We will ride the OVER here.
Results: 1-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2007
The Cubs have been 13-5 in Ted Lilly's last 18 starts, and the Reds are the worst team in baseball against LHP, posting a 23-37 mark while eating up 12.40 units for their backers on the season. Th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2007
The Red Sox seem to be teasing with the idea of winning the division, clinching the best record, and just when you think they have it, they slip. They will send Diasuke Matsusaka to the mound tonight ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2007
The Reds have now lost four straight and send Matt Belisle to the mound. Belisle hasn't exactly been a stopper for the Reds. The Reds have been 3-10 in his last 13 starts following a loss and are ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2007
The Rangers have taken the first two in this series, and have now won four of five. They will send Luis Mendoza to the hill to look for the sweep. Mendoza has been very impressive for the Rangers, as ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2007
Jason Bergman has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals. Bergman has allowed only 89 hits in 107 innings worked, and the Nats have been 5-3 in his last eight starts, and he has not allowed more t...
