Baseball Betting Picks - October 02, 2009

Our two plays were PPD yesterday. Today we are back on the dusty diamond with a trio of premium picks. We are up +13 units over the last two weeks (29-22), and over the last three and a half months, we are 248-193 for +112 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
NFL	29-26 last 55 picks	53%	+$200
CFB	11-6 last 17 picks	65%	+$1170
MLB	248-193 last 441 picks	56%	+$11190
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
WNBA	120-89 last 209 picks	57%	+$5760
TOTAL			+$30780

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Blue Jays and Orioles will square of in each team's final series of the season, and it can't come fast enough for either team. There will be a lot of rookies getting looks here, so despite the pitching matchup, I'm looking for aggressive, impatient hitters at the plate, not working counts and just trying to shorten the game. The Orioles have fared very poorly on the season vs. left-handed pitching and consequently, they have played to a 23-9-1 mark in their last 33 at home against them, and five of the last six played in this series have gone UNDER the total when played in Baltimore. As a road chalk, the Jays have seen seven of the last 10 fail to go over the total as well. This one goes UNDER the total.

The New York Yankees have clinched everything and are in the process of setting their rotation for the playoffs, resting players as well. CC Sabathia has pitched well of late, but this is likely a playoff tune-up and he won't be extended beyond five innings, get his work in and get ready for his playoffs start. The Rays have handled him this season as he owns zero wins in three starts, and carries a 4.35 ERA against them into this one. Dave Price gets the ball for Tampa and he has fared well vs. the Yankees, allowing just eight hits in 17 career innings pitched. It’s hard to duck around the fact that the Rays are 108-48 in their last 156 at home, so getting them at dog prices is always a barging and Price is 8-2 against the tough AL East. Looking at the Rays work at home against top pitchers extends the value. They own six home wins vs. Sabathia, Beckett (2), Halladay (2), and Lester as well as Josh Johnson of the Marlins. The six wins vs. the AL pitchers listed are all in the top 11 in the AL in ERA. Johnson is No. 10 in the NL. That is seven wins at home against the best. There is lots of value here, so I am playing the Rays.

There is tremendous value here when you consider the Rays’ history. They have won six times at home against pitchers in the top 10 in the AL in ERA as well as one against the No. 10 ranked ERA leader in the NL Josh Johnson. Then here we are getting a run and a half on a team that is 108-48 in their last 156 at home. Sabathia will likely throw five innings here to try for his 20th, and depart. Price has had the Yankees number so far, and Sabathia has not recorded a win vs. the Rays in three starts this season. I'm going with the Rays on the runline.

Results: 2-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our 2009 MLB baseball season picks here.
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• Hop over to our how to bet mlb here.
• Check out our updated MLB previous picks.
• Check out MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our baseball sports book reviews.
• Here we show our Baseball lines and odds.
• View our updated free baseball predictions.
• Hop over to our MLB ATS records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-October-01-2009
The Pirates’ sweep yesterday has taken some of the air out of this line. But that was one day, and the old saying, "One day does not a season make" certainly applies to the Pirates. Th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-30-2009
This Met team is really in a funk. They had high expectations, but injuries, attitude, and lack of team chemistry has done them in. They have been no-shows on the road, and last night blew a 3-0 lead....

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-29-2009
The Tigers sure have been feeling the heat from the Twins’ 11-2 run that has closed the gap in the AL Central to just two games. The Tigers aren't doing themselves any favors at just 8-11 ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2009
The Detroit Tigers have done everything they can to make a race out of the AL Central. They had virtually put away a few weeks ago, but going 8-11 down the stretch has left the door open for a suddenl...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2009
Some may worry about  LA's motivation here. The Dodgers have secured a playoff spot but they aren't done yet as they seek to clinch the West. This team is still about business as demonstr...