Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - October 01, 2008

We open the MLB playoffs with three plays including a 4-unit pick. We enter the playoffs on a 60% run (9-6), good for +13.4 units over the last week.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -203 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Phillies will take on the Brewers to open the NL playoffs. Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Phillies and although the Brewers have been tough on lefthanders, Hamels hasn't been one of them. Hamels has made two starts at home against the Brewers, including one three weeks ago where he allowed just two runs over 6.1 innings. His home starts against the Brewers shows just eight hits allowed in 14.1 innings with 16 k's and a brilliant 2.51 ERA. The Brewers did not get to align their rotation for the playoffs because they did not clinch until the last day of the season. They will go with Yovani Gallardo who, because of a series of injuries threw just 24 innings all season. Gallardo has good stuff, but he is not ready to pitch very deep into games. Off of one four-inning start in September, I  would be surprised if he locates well in this one, so the pitching matchup goes to Hamels here as well as the bullpen edge where the Phillies have the top pen in the NL with a 3.21 ERA. I also like the UNDER as the Phillies have their ace with a solid history against the Brewers. He is backed by a top bullpen and all four of Gallardo's starts this season have gone UNDER as well.

The NL post season opens in Chicago where the Cubs seek a World Series title in the hopes of breaking the 100 year drought. It will be Ryan Dempster of the Cubs against Derek Lowe of the Dodgers. Although this matchup looks like a pitchers duel, strong evidence supports otherwise. The Dodgers are 25-12 to the OVER against a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or less over the last two seasons. The Cubs have been 20-10 to the OVER against a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or less this season. That makes for a combined 45-22 pointing to the OVER, so I will play this one to go over the total. 

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our baseball picks blog here.
• Hop over to our 2008 baseball picks season results here.
• Read our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Updated today: baseball sportsbook.
• Don't forget to visit our how to bet baseball.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball odds.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB ATS standings.
• Don't forget to read our MLB previous picks here.
• Read our mlb baseball predictions here.
• Updated today: 2008 season baseball betting preivew.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-28-2008
The Mets need this game in order to control their own destiny and secure a shot at the wild-card spot. They look to Oliver Perez who has certainly not been consistent of late. I don't think the Me...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-27-2008
The Brewers took over a one game wildcard advantage on the once again fading Mets. They will send Ben Sheets to the mound to try to maintain that slim margin. There is one problem, Sheets left his las...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-26-2008
Arizona sure had their chance to put away the Western Division in the NL, but squandered an opportunity when the Dodgers lost eight straight back at the end of August, and the beginning of September. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-25-2008
This line is very inflated because the Brewers have a vested interest in the outcome as it pertains to their wildcard tie with the falling Mets. It is hard to lay two-to-one odds on a pitcher that has...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-September-24-2008
Once the Yankees were basically out of the pennant race they have begun to play the way they are capable. It seems as if the pressure has been relieved, and now they just go out relax, win, then go ho...