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Wunderdog Sports Picks Newsletter
MLB Baseball Premium Edition
October 01, 2006

darrell,

Got them both yesterday.  Two picks today.

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The Wunderdog


Premium Picks

Game: Tampa Bay at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on Cleveland -174 (risk 300 to win 172)

Tampa Bay got their third win in their last 35 road games last week against Boston. They then went on to lose three more to Cleveland. Tonight they will make it 3-36. The D-Rays start Jason Hammel who is 0-5 with a 7.45 ERA. Cliff Lee goes for the Indians and he's hot in September (3-1 with a 3.03 ERA). He's 19-4 over two seasons in second-half play vs. low-scoring teams that put up 4.7 per game or less. The Indians are on fire having won seven seven of eight games. Tampa scores 3.9 per game on the road while Cleveland pounds in 5.4 per game at home and 5.6 vs. righties like Hammel. They are averaging 6.4 per game over their last seven games. Indians for the sweep.


Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Los Angeles Dodgers +171 (risk 200 to win 342)

LA has won six in a row and eight of nine. They clinched yesterday but still have a lot to play for. They will be the wild card unless they win here (and get some help from Arizona). They give the ball to Eric Stults who's only pitched in five games. In his singe start at the Mets on September 10th, he gave up just one run in six innings. San Franisco starts Jason Schmidt but he can't help with San Francisco's bats. The Giants have lost 12 of 14 games and are in a freefall. Schmidt has only won once in his last six starts and the Dogers have won 12 of 18 games in this matchup so far this season (including 6 of 8 here in San Francisco). The Dodgers are killing the ball (7.4 runs per game over their last seven) while SF can't hit (3.4 per game over their last seven). The Dodgers have the better bullpen too. Every advantage goes to LA here except starting pitching which is being overvalued. Take the big underdog that has the hotter bats that is in need of a win


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How much to bet? I recommend 1% of your bankroll for every star. A one-star pick = 1% of bankroll. A five-star pick = 5% of bankroll. It is strongly recommended that you never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game! Remember, there are no such thing as locks. Never bet over your head and you'll live to see another day. Approach your bets as an investment that grows steadily over the long-term. For more, see my write-up on Bankroll Management.
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The Wunderdog

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