Baseball Betting Picks - May 29, 2008

Despite dropping our 5-unit pick last night, we rallied to finish 5-3 for +2.8 units for another winning night on the bases. Over the last two weeks we are hitting 65% and have grabbed +67.8 units in the process. Six plays today with a 4-unit selection.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	55-29 last 84 picks	65%	+$6780
NBA	28-22 last 50 picks	56%	+$1020
NHL	43-25 last 68 picks	63%	+$3300
TOTAL			+$11100

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Atlanta at Milwaukee (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Milwaukee -105 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.9)

Atlanta has been two different teams. While dominating everyone at home, they have been dominated on the road where they are just 6-18 on the season. Jorge Campillo has come out of the bullpen to pitch a pair of good games for the Braves, but, and that is a big but, those were both at home. Seth McClung has delivered in the same role as he was called from the pen to start, winning in his '08 debut as a starter. The Braves are 2-11 in their last 13 on the road, getting shutout three times. Hard to see any value on a road team that has been so horrible at even money, so we will back the Brew Crew at home.

The Jays have suddenly caught fire as they have now gone 12-4 over their last 16. Jesse Litsch showed his potential last year with a sub 4 ERA in the AL. He has since improved on that and brings a 6-1 mark into this game. He has made two career appearances against the A's with a 1.38 ERA. Dana Eveland has pitched well for the A's, but the A's have regressed to a 7-10 mark over their last 17. The Jays can match pitchers with the A's and the lineup is a bit deeper, which will make the difference here. The Jays get the call.

The Padres certainly have not reached their potential or expectations thus far. You know at some point they will, so for now the value is there when they are a lean home favorite vs. a team that has been 73-115 on the road the last 2+ years. The Padres are not as bad at home where they are three games better than the Nats on the road. The Nats have captured the win column in just eight of their last 24 and getting a team at home with short odds with the upside of the Padres, against a road team that struggles is value enough for us to pull the trigger on the Padres in this one.

The Cubs have become the winningest home team in baseball, as they have now put together a 22-8 start. The Rockies have yet to find the magic they had at the end of last year and have truly been unproductive on the road, entering this one at 8-19. Jeff Francis is a factor in the struggle as he has pitched to a 6.18 ERA and the Rockies have won just three of his 10 starts. Francis has an ERA approaching 10 against the Cubs. Jason Marquis has had success against Colorado where he has logged a 5-3 mark with a 3.89 ERA. Best home team vs. worst road team says Cubs here. We also like this one to go UNDER, as when the Rockies have Francis on the mound as a dog have been 25-12-4 to the UNDER. Marquis has pitched UNDER to the tune of 10-4-1 in his last 15 starts with four days rest, so we will also play the UNDER here.

It has been quite the nightmare for Zito and the Giants as he started 0-8. Let's not forget that Zito has a 114-84 career mark with a 3.73 ERA. That's where the value lies here. Zito has been that pitcher over his last four starts where he has pitched to a 3.22 ERA. Randy Johnson has found the win column, but his ERA is average, and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched and is no longer the dominant pitcher he has been. The D-backs were quick out of the gate, but have really slid the past week and a half as they are just 2-7 in their last nine. There is lots of value on the Giants here as we expect Zito will at least match Johnson and provide a chance for a big dog surprise.

Results: 4-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our mlb blog here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB Baseball odds and lines here.
• Read our mlb baseball ATS records here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 MLB baseball pick season results.
• Here we show our 2008 baseball gambling preivew.
• View Baseball handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out our updated baseball picks.
• Updated today: baseball sports book reviews.
• Don't forget to read our Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Read our MLB prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-28-2008
The Rays continue to lead the AL East and now that we are almost a third of the way through the season, this feat is no longer labeled as a fluke. For the first time in their franchise history, the Ra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-27-2008
It is tough mentally, when you see a team post double-digit runs in consecutive games, especially when the total is 35. The one thing about baseball however, is that the momentum can change with the n...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-26-2008
Baltimore has been better than advertised. While the Yankees have been winning at home, they now take to the road where they have been highly suspect. The Yankees have had their troubles in Balti...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-25-2008
The Yankees bats have awoken after their slump, putting up 12 runs yesterday after 13 on Friday. But, let's not forget that this team needed 10 games to put up that same 25-run total prior to the ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-24-2008
The Royals have settled down, and this young team will have its bright moments this season, but at the same time they will be prone to long droughts as well. They are currently in one now as they have...