Mlb Game Predictions - May 28, 2008

Yesterday we posted another winning day as we finished 3-1 for +4.8 units. In addition to being up on the MLB season overall; we are also bashing the books over the last two and a half weeks to the tune of +64.9 units while winning at 66% (50-26). Over the last week alone we are a torrid 71% (22-9) for +34 units! Today we offer eight plays including our 5-unit Game of the Month.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	50-26 last 76 picks	66%	+$6490
NBA	28-20 last 48 picks	58%	+$1720
NHL	43-24 last 67 picks	64%	+$3800
TOTAL			+$12010

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Texas at Tampa Bay (12:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +135 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.1)

The Rays continue to lead the AL East and now that we are almost a third of the way through the season, this feat is no longer labeled as a fluke. For the first time in their franchise history, the Rays have built a home-field advantage as they enter this game at 20-9. The better part is how they are winning those 20 games as they are now 16-4 to the -1.5 runline in those 20 wins and overall, including the losses, stand at 16-13. To be getting this team at +135 with an overall home performance of covering 55% is tremendous value. The Rays are also off to a 16-5 start at home as a favorite, so they are winning when they should. Texas has done better on the road, but when they have to play very good teams they struggle, as witnessed by their four-straight defeats at Boston. This one comfortably goes to the Rays.

if your looking for the Rockies to produce half of this total, it is a reach. They have managed to do so in just two of their last 15 road games! You also have to consider the fact that Reynolds and Eaton have combined to make 13 starts on the season and in just two of the 13 has there been more than 10 runs produced. The Phillies have also played 7-0 to the UNDER in Eaton's last seven home starts. The Rockies have been 8-1 in game 3 of a series to the UNDER as well and this one will go under the total.

Bronson Arroyo got out of the gate about as slow as you could imagine. He carried a 8.63 ERA through his first seven starts. It was a matter of time before those numbers began to change and they have. Arroyo has worked 26.1 innings in his last four starts, with an equal amount of strikeouts (26) and an ERA of 2.05. For Tom Gorzelanny nothing has gone right this season. Gorzelanny gave up 18 HR's all of last season and now he has given up six in his last three. He didn't walk his 35th batter until after the All-Star break last season, and he has reached that total in just 45.2 innings. The Reds are winning at home at 15-9, so this matchup is loaded with value.

The Braves have created a homefield advantage amongst the best in '08 as they have compiled a 22-7 mark. They have one problem, this game is on the road and they have been just 6-17 away from Atlanta. They have failed to produce more than three runs a game on the road 14 times in the 23 games or 61% of the time, which certainly makes it improbable to find the win column. Milwaukee has played to a 12-9 mark at home, and Jeff Suppan has pitched well in his last three games with an ERA of 2.89. Suppan has started 20 games at home as a Brewer and the overall record stands at 14-6, and they are the choice at home over the Braves.

The Dodgers have gone UNDER in seven straight. That, combined with the names sewn on to the back of the starters' jerseys is why we have a total so low. Zambrano has been good this year with a 2.47 ERA but he's slipping of late (4.50 ERA over his last three). Lowe hasn't been good at all posting a 5.03 ERA that is 6.61 on the road and 6.50 over his last three starts. The Dodgers are scoring 4.7 runs per game on the road and 5.4 per game in night games. Chicago belts home 6.5 runs per game at home so they will get their's tonight. We like the OVER here.

The Tigers just can't get out of their own way and have now sunk to 10 games under .500, and the road has been unkind. The Tigers have now dropped 10 of 11 on the road scoring two runs or less in eight of them while getting shutout three times. The Angels send Joe Saunders to the mound who has been terrific. He is 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA. The Angels are 18-6 over the last three years at home behind Saunders including 5-0 this season, and we think this is very short odds in the given state of the Tigers, and the fact that Saunders has pitched to a 75% win rate for the Angels at home. Angels for the sweep.

You just have to know that this San Diego team is going to make a lot of money for their backers soon as they are much better than where they sit, so they pack a lot of value in the moment as we cashed with them last night and will ride them again here. Shawn Estes has given the rotaion a lift as he has provided three starts and has yielded just five runs. Odalis Perez has given up 27 hits in his last 16 innings, has not been sharp at all. Throw in five walks and that is two baserunners an inning - certainly not the recipe for the win column. The Nats have long had difficulties on the road and the 9-16 mark this year shows no sign of change, so the Padres get the call here.

The Red Sox have steamrolled everyone at home, but have been less-than ordinary on the road where they stand at just 11-18 and are just 5-13 in their last 18 on the road, having won just one of their last nine. Erik bedard has found pitching on the mound in Seattle to his liking as he has allowed just four runs in 21.2 innings, good for an ERA of 1.66. Tim Wakefield has not enjoyed much success against the Mariners in his career where he has been 3-8. Good spot for the M's behind Bedard.

Results: 5-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-27-2008
It is tough mentally, when you see a team post double-digit runs in consecutive games, especially when the total is 35. The one thing about baseball however, is that the momentum can change with the n...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-26-2008
Baltimore has been better than advertised. While the Yankees have been winning at home, they now take to the road where they have been highly suspect. The Yankees have had their troubles in Balti...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-25-2008
The Yankees bats have awoken after their slump, putting up 12 runs yesterday after 13 on Friday. But, let's not forget that this team needed 10 games to put up that same 25-run total prior to the ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-24-2008
The Royals have settled down, and this young team will have its bright moments this season, but at the same time they will be prone to long droughts as well. They are currently in one now as they have...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-23-2008
This is a Ranger offense that has been sizzling hot. Over the last 12 games the offense has produced 87 runs, or 7.25 per game, almost covering this total based on just one team over the past two week...