Sports Pick Mlb - May 20, 2008

Split our two picks yesterday for a slight loss. Our MLB selections are rolling over the last week as we are now up +36.3 units while hitting at 67% (24-12). Five picks today with two 5-unit selections.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Mets at Atlanta (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

This is a game 1 pick in the doubleheader between the Mets and the Braves in Atlanta. The Mets have won back-to-back games, and have finally found their bats, as the offense has produced 18 runs in the last two games. The same can be said for the Braves at home, where the offense has exploded for 50 runs in their last eight games on their home turf, good for 6.25 runs per game. The Mets are also 13-5 to the OVER as a road favorite and 20-8-2 to the OVER when starting a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15. We'll go with the OVER here.

The Yankees have managed 2 or fewer runs in five of their last six games and are averaging just 4.1 runs per game. Now they face Daniel Cabrera who has pitched to a 3.58 ERA and 4-1 start. Over his last three games, he's gone 7.8 innings per start giving up a total of 7 runs and 3 walks while striking out 16 batters. Cabrera has won 12 of the last 13 he has started vs. teams that are averaging under 4.3 runs per game. New York is just 8-14 this season thus far as a favorite of -100 to -150. They are off a 11-2 beat down at the hands of the Mets. Their confidence is low and Cabrera should be able to keep it that way. We like the O's here as a nice-priced dog.

The wheels are coming off for Milwaukee, as they have now dropped five straight games, have fallen to under .500 and just 9-15 on the road. The road has been a tough place as they have now won just four of their last 16. Not sure if Manny Parra is the answer here with a 5+ ERA and 8+ road ERA. The Pirates are playing .600 baseball at home and have won seven of eight in the steel city. Paul Maholm has led the Pirates to four wins in four home starts, and we'll back him here against an icy Brewers' team.

The Cubs have been playing great baseball as they have won 9 of 11, but let's not be completely fooled here as 10 of those were at home. The fact is the Cubs have won just four of their last 11 on the road. They have gotten much more out of Ryan Dempster than they could have ever expected, and a regression to the mean is certainly on the horizon for him. The Astros have played 18 of their last 25 on the road and have held their own. They have been great at home winning eight of their last 10. Chris Sampson has struggled at home, and expect him to have a much better outing today against the Cubs. We'll grab the division rival as a home dog in this one.

The Giants have been struggling on the road, now at 6-14. They have also dropped six straight, and confidence has reached a season's low. The Rockies meanwhile, have gotten the home magic working again, as they have won three straight here, and five of six. Aaron Cook has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. Tim Lincecum has been great, but the problem is that at some point the game goes over to the pen, which has allowed 11 runs in his last three starts covering just seven innings! Cook can match Lincecum pitch for pitch, but in the end the Rockies will get to the pen if they don't get to Lincecum first. We'll grab the Rockies over the ice-cold Giants.

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-19-2008
The Astros return home after a marathon 10-game road trip. On the trip they went 7-3, scoring 5.8 runs per game. Lance Berkman hit .545 on the trip as his team scored less than 5 runs just twice on th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-18-2008
Something is different with the Marlins. They are 24-18 to start the season and, get this, they are spending money! They laid out $70 million for a six-year deal with Hanley Ramirez on Saturday - the ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-17-2008
Tampa Bay enters red-hot while the Cards have been struggling mightily after a good start. The problem for the Cards is they can't seem to get anyone out anymore, and in the past 14 games, the opp...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-16-2008
Washington spoiled the Mets chances to make the playoffs last September, and come back and take three of four in NY. Other than being Met killers the track record on the road for the Nats isn't ve...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-15-2008
This game is all about Ben Sheets and more importantly, a healthy Ben Sheets. This guy doesn't get the same credit as other top pitchers in the league, because of his oft-injured status, but he is...